Week Ahead

The Economic Week Ahead: April 8 - 12

Apr 7, 2024 2 min read

This week will feature some key inflation numbers. The March headline CPI (Wed) and PPI (Mar) will get a boost from higher gasoline prices. Their core inflation rates should continue to moderate. The week starts with the FRBNY survey of inflation expectations (Mon). The pump price of gasoline jumped last month and probably boosted inflation expectations (chart): The gasoline component of the March CPI will also reflect the jump in

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 25 - 29

Mar 24, 2024 2 min read paid

The most important economic indicator for the week ahead will be February's PCED inflation rate, which comes out on Friday. The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast shows the headline and core rates rising 0.4% and 0.3% m/m, and 2.5% and 2.8% y/y. Those results would be about the same as January's, possibly raising concerns that inflation has stalled and

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 11-15

Mar 9, 2024 2 min read paid

The coming week starts with a couple of key inflation indicators. Both were probably boosted by rising gasoline prices. The retail pump price is up 9.1% since the last week of January. This bounce might have boosted February's reading on the year-ahead expected inflation rate in the FRBNY consumer expectations survey (Mon). It did so, though only slightly, in a similar series from February's SCR

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 4 - 8

Mar 2, 2024 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. We expect that January's JOLTS report (Wed) and February's employment report (Fri) will confirm that the labor market remains strong. That's based on weekly initial unemployment claims remaining just north of 200,000 in recent weeks and February's consumer confidence survey showing that 41.3% of respondents agreed that jobs are plentiful (chart). Bad

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 26 - March 1

Feb 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic week ahead is jampacked with important economic indicators. The ones for January–New Home Sales (Mon), Durable Goods (Tue), and Personal Income (Thu)–were probably weakened by the month's bad weather. The February indicators should show some rebound in economic activity. February's Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Fed regional business surveys will be out this week. They should confirm the weather-related rebounds in economic

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Feb 20 - 23

Feb 17, 2024 2 min read paid

It's a slow, holiday-shortened week for economic data up ahead. It will start on Tuesday with January's Index of Leading Economic indicators (LEI) and Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI). Regarding the LEI, we are reminded of Bradley Cooper's song, "Maybe it's time to let the old ways die." The LEI peaked at a record high during December 2021, and

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 12-16

Feb 11, 2024 2 min read

Powell & Co. would like to see more evidence that inflation is falling toward their 2.0% target. They should get more of it this week. January's headline and core CPI inflation rates (Tue) should be 0.2% and 0.3% m/m, and 3.0% and 3.8% y/y, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model. We will be focusing on these inflation

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 4-9

Feb 4, 2024 2 min read

Now that the latest meeting of the Federal Open Mouth Committee is over, we can expect lots of chatter from its members. They are likely to echo Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments in his presser last Wednesday. In essence, he said that the Fed is done raising the federal funds rate further, but is in no rush to lower it either. According to the 12-month federal funds rate

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: January 22 - 26

Jan 20, 2024 2 min read

The week ahead should be another good one for our "immaculate disinflation" scenario. December's Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (Mon) probably rose to another record high (chart). Payroll employment rose to a new high last month. Real personal income and real business sales of goods probably did the same. Production upticked in December. The Index of Leading Economic indicators has been misleadingly pessimistic since December 2022.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 16-19

Jan 15, 2024 2 min read paid

Last week had plenty of indicators that allowed us to assess the latest readings on US inflation: It is continuing to moderate. This week has plenty of reports that will allow us to assess the strength of the economy: They are likely to show some mixed readings for the goods sector. Most important will be December's retail sales (Wed). We know that aggregate hours worked fell 0.2%

Ed Yardeni

This Week: January 8 - 12

Jan 10, 2024 2 min read

The second week of the month tends to be light on economic releases compared to the other weeks of the month. However, it usually includes the CPI. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting is projecting that tomorrow's headline and core CPI inflation rates for December will both be up 0.3% m/m. We are thinking that the headline might be closer to zero given that gasoline prices continued

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 18 - 22

Dec 17, 2023 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, at his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish. So bond and stock prices continued to rally on expectations that the Fed might cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 by 75bps in total. On Friday, NY Fed President John Williams pushed back by saying, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." More Fed officials will weigh in on

Ed Yardeni

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