Week Ahead

The Economic Week Ahead: June 24-28

Jun 23, 2024 3 min read paid

The key indicator everyone's watching this week is May's PCED (Fri). We expect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will continue to show progress toward its 2.0% target. The labor market may also take center stage this week. If weekly jobless claims (Thu) increase sharply after falling 5,000 to 238,000 in the June 15 week, the 10-year Treasury yield would likely

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 17-21

Jun 16, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will include lots of economic indicators, which on balance should show that the pace of economic activity improved during May. June's regional business surveys for the New York and Philly Fed districts will also be released. The BIG number should be initial unemployment claims. Here's our take: (1) Unemployment claims. Jobless claims (Thu) jumped over the past three weeks through the week

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 10-14

Jun 9, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will be dominated by the FOMC’s latest meeting (Wed) and May’s CPI report. The FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate (FFR) target range between 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday. The committee will also release its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showing the participants’ median forecasts for real GDP, the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, and the FFR.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 3-7

Jun 2, 2024 2 min read paid

This week, May's employment report (Fri) is likely to be the most important one. We expect the labor market cooled a bit last month, tempering wage growth but not signaling a looming employment-led recession. Less profit margin pressure from wage inflation should boost company earnings, while the solid jobs market should continue to fuel consumer spending. If so, that's bullish for stocks. Here’s what

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 28 - 31

May 27, 2024 3 min read

The economic indicators released during the shortened week ahead should confirm that economic growth remains solid and that inflation is continuing to moderate. Here's what we're watching this week: (1) PCED. The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model shows headline and core PCED rose 2.68% and 2.74% y/y (0.27% and 0.23% m/m) last month (chart). That would be the lowest

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 6 - 10

May 5, 2024 2 min read

It's slim pickings this week on the US economic front. The news is mostly about credit conditions. Then again, earnings reporting season isn't over. And, we can always count on the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee to make headlines now that their blackout period is over. Here is what we can expect from this week's credit market indicators: (1) Q2's

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 29 - May 3

Apr 28, 2024 2 min read paid

This could be another action packed week as the Fed's meeting and the latest S&P 500 earnings reporting season take center stage. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his press conference on Wednesday after the latest FOMC meeting adjourns. He is likely to reiterate that the FOMC is in no rush to lower interest rates, and isn't considering raising them either. That won'

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 8 - 12

Apr 7, 2024 2 min read

This week will feature some key inflation numbers. The March headline CPI (Wed) and PPI (Mar) will get a boost from higher gasoline prices. Their core inflation rates should continue to moderate. The week starts with the FRBNY survey of inflation expectations (Mon). The pump price of gasoline jumped last month and probably boosted inflation expectations (chart): The gasoline component of the March CPI will also reflect the jump in

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 25 - 29

Mar 24, 2024 2 min read paid

The most important economic indicator for the week ahead will be February's PCED inflation rate, which comes out on Friday. The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast shows the headline and core rates rising 0.4% and 0.3% m/m, and 2.5% and 2.8% y/y. Those results would be about the same as January's, possibly raising concerns that inflation has stalled and

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 11-15

Mar 9, 2024 2 min read paid

The coming week starts with a couple of key inflation indicators. Both were probably boosted by rising gasoline prices. The retail pump price is up 9.1% since the last week of January. This bounce might have boosted February's reading on the year-ahead expected inflation rate in the FRBNY consumer expectations survey (Mon). It did so, though only slightly, in a similar series from February's

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 4 - 8

Mar 2, 2024 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. We expect that January's JOLTS report (Wed) and February's employment report (Fri) will confirm that the labor market remains strong. That's based on weekly initial unemployment claims remaining just north of 200,000 in recent weeks and February's consumer confidence survey showing that 41.3% of respondents agreed that jobs are plentiful (chart). Bad

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 26 - March 1

Feb 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic week ahead is jampacked with important economic indicators. The ones for January–New Home Sales (Mon), Durable Goods (Tue), and Personal Income (Thu)–were probably weakened by the month's bad weather. The February indicators should show some rebound in economic activity. February's Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Fed regional business surveys will be out this week. They should confirm the weather-related rebounds in

Ed Yardeni

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