The coming new year looks like another good one for stock investors. Dr Ed is adjusting his subjective odds of various stock market scenarios, including raising the odds of his base-case Roaring 2020s outlook to 60%. Associated assumptions for earnings and valuation levels produce an S&P 500 price target of 7700 by year-end 2026. Alternative scenarios include a bear case, triggered by a recession or recession fears (20% odds), and a stock market meltdown/meltup (trimmed to 20%). … Also discussed: Five winds at the economy’s back that support a continuation of the Roaring 2020s and six potential developments that could blow it off course.
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