Dr Ed is sticking to his guns: He has contended since early last year that the US economy is too resilient and inflation is not close enough to 2.0% for Fed officials to muck around with easing. The widespread expectation that they will ease anyway in September is lifting stocks, and the actual event may cause a stock market meltup. The bond market’s reaction to unwarranted easing is tougher to gauge. If it causes the Bond Vigilantes to drive up yields, the Fed’s reputation as inflation fighters could be shot. Recent inflation data suggest inflation could use some fighting, as Trump’s tariffs may be keeping it elevated above the Fed’s target 2.0% and services inflation remains hot.
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