Saturday’s military attack on Iran by the US and Israel that killed Iran’s leader and 40 top officials is likely to push oil prices higher this week. However, in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire. In any event, the attack also incapacitated Iran’s navy, so the threat of a blocked Strait of Hormuz has been greatly reduced. This is potentially a positive development from economic and investment perspectives, greatly reducing geopolitical risk in the Middle East once the war ends. If oil prices drop in the coming weeks following a ceasefire, US inflation and gasoline prices will decline, boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies and stock markets. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring 2020s scenario. ... Also: Dr Ed reviews “Mercy” (+).
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