Our Roaring 2020s outlook has been on target since the beginning of the decade. Over the past two quarters, GDP growth and consumer spending have been robust, and the recession widely anticipated for three years and as recently as April never showed. The Fed’s September interest-rate cut—made proactively in response to weak payroll stats—was probably a mistake that could stoke price inflation and financial speculation. While unemployment is low, AI is disrupting some areas of the labor market. The Fed’s rate cut won’t help former tech workers now driving for Uber. … The good news: Consumer spending should remain strong as Baby Boomers work down substantial nest eggs and support the spending of their adult progeny.
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