With the US suddenly thick in the fog of war, Dr Ed discusses the collateral effects on the US economy and stock market. Spiking oil prices may precipitate a stock market correction rather than a bear market, but the latter is possible. The Roaring 2020s remains Dr Ed’s base-case outlook for the rest of this year with subjective odds unchanged at 60%. But there’s now much less chance of a Meltup (with odds of just 5%) and greater odds of a Meltdown (35%). For the rest of the decade, he sees either a continuation of the Roaring 2020s (85%) or a new scenario, the Stagflating 1970s Redux (15%). If investors start expecting stagflation, a bear market is more likely. Markets should stabilize once the Strait of Hormuz reopens to safe navigation.
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