The latest US–China aggressions have the financial markets worried about the high stakes of a trade war between the globe’s biggest trading nation and its largest economy. William observes that a disruption to global supply chains would have adverse consequences for earnings, economic growth, and central banks’ pursuit of their mandates. But given the severity of the consequences, we expect a quick de-escalation of the tensions, with both sides willing to negotiate. … Also: The German economy is contracting, with weak industrial production, exports, employment, and consumer sentiment. Yet the government’s stimulus measures do little to address the underlying structural causes.
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