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Technicals Remain Bullish

Dec 8, 2022 1 min read

Jitters about a consumer-led recession over the past few days pushed the CBOE equities Put/Call Ratio up to 1.46 yesterday (chart). That's a very elevated reading and suggests that there is too much pessimism. It favors a yearend rally rather than a yearend crash. There is also still lots of bearishness in Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio. It rose to 1.34 this past week (chart)

Ed Yardeni

Fork In The Road

Dec 7, 2022 1 min read paid

It was another day of recession jitters in the stock market as the CEOs of Bank of America and Wells Fargo reported that they are seeing slowing consumer spending and borrowing. That may be so, but there wasn't any evidence of a slowdown in October's consumer credit data released by the Fed today. Total consumer credit rose $27.1 billion in October, up from a revised

Ed Yardeni

Yearend Jitters

Dec 6, 2022 2 min read

The stock market has the jitters as investors worry that the economy may be too strong and too weak at the same time. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell because November's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was stronger than expected (chart). Investors concluded that the economy may be too strong requiring the Fed to raise interest rates still higher, increasing the risk of a recession. Today, stock prices

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/5/22

Dec 5, 2022 1 min read

We’ll be glad to put this year behind us—pessimism reigned as inflation raged, the Fed tightened, and investors revalued stocks downward. But the resultant bear market was a mild one as bear markets go. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. If it ended on October 12, as

Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Market Call

Dec 5, 2022 1 min read paid

Before Friday, we had four excellent put/call ratios in a row and six out of the last 7 day excluding Friday, which was the first poor reading. The market also had a noticeable improvement in breadth on the latest rally.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Dec. 5-Dec. 9

Dec 4, 2022 1 min read paid

It's always nice to get a break from the Federal Open Mouth Committee's chattering. The FOMC participants' blackout period started yesterday and will last through Friday, December 15.

Ed Yardeni

Calm Waters For Now

Dec 3, 2022 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 recovered nicely on Friday after it reacted badly to the morning's stronger-than-expected November payroll report, especially the higher-than-expected gain in wages. The knee-jerk reaction was that the end of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle would take longer to occur. But by the end of the day, the S&P 500 was down just 0.12% and remained above its 200-day

Ed Yardeni

Soft Landing

Dec 1, 2022 2 min read

The bears disparaged yesterday's stock market rally claiming that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Brookings Institution was hawkish and didn't justify the market's bullish spin. We believe that the bulls correctly perceive that inflation peaked this summer and were relieved to hear Powell say that the Fed might be willing to let inflation subside without pushing the economy into a

Ed Yardeni

Moon Shot?

Nov 30, 2022 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was a bit less hawkish today. He said he still thinks there is a "path to a soft or softish" landing for the economy. He also suggested that the next hike in the federal funds rate on December 14 is likely to be 50bps rather than 75bps. So stock prices exploded to the upside. The DJIA soared more than 735 points, or 2.2%

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed: ‘Moderation’ Is the Word

Nov 30, 2022 4 min read paid

Bond yields fell and stock prices rose in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today at the Brookings Institution. Most importantly, he confirmed that the FOMC is on track to raise the federal funds rate by 50bps rather than 75bps at the December 13-14 meeting of the committee. Here is how he concluded his speech: This is an excerpt from our Nov 30 Morning Briefing. “Monetary policy affects

Ed Yardeni

Santa's Month

Nov 29, 2022 1 min read

Since 1928, Decembers have had more up months and fewer down months for the S&P 500 than any other month of the year (chart). The average change in the S&P 500 during Septembers has been -1.1%, the worst of the months. That was followed by October (0.6%), November (0.8%), and December (1.1%). Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus rally. Santa'

Ed Yardeni

Sweet & Sour

Nov 29, 2022 1 min read paid

Today's release of November's Consumer Confidence Index showed that the labor market remains relatively tight. The percentage of respondents saying that jobs are plentiful remained high at 45.8%. That's still elevated even though it was mostly around 55.0% last year. This series closely tracks the job openings series in the JOLTS report, which will come out tomorrow for October (chart). The Fed

Ed Yardeni