Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 139)

Labor Shortages Depressing Small Business Owners

Oct 11, 2022 2 min read paid

Today, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its September survey of small business owners. They are about as depressed as they have ever been. That’s not because their sales are terrible. Rather, they can’t find enough workers to expand their businesses. So they’ve had to raise both the wages they pay and the prices they charge. However, September’s survey suggested that inflationary pressures are

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Are Still Consuming

Oct 11, 2022 1 min read paid

So far, consumers haven’t read the recession memo. They are spending freely, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse, which found that retail sales grew by double digits, both online and offline, in September 2022. Excluding autos, off-line retail sales increased 11% y/y, and e-commerce sales rose 10.7% y/y. (The data are based on in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment and are

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/10/22

Oct 10, 2022 1 min read

The financial markets have been laser focused on inflation news this year, and are bracing for the next couple of days’ releases. Thursday’s CPI report for September is bound to move the markets, and tomorrow should bring a sneak peek of what it holds in store via the PPI release, specifically its personal consumption expenditures index. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid

Ed Yardeni

Supply Chain Problems Are Abating

Oct 9, 2022 1 min read paid

Supply-chain bottlenecks are easing. The parts you’ve been waiting for should arrive shortly. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York compiles a monthly Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) (chart below).It shows that global supply chain pressures decreased in September, marking a fifth consecutive month of easing. The September decline was quite broad-based. The GSCPI’s ytd movements suggest that global supply chain pressures are beginning

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 10-14

Oct 8, 2022 1 min read

Monday is Columbus Day and the bond market will be closed. But stock investors can start the week worrying about September's PPI (Wed.) and CPI (Thu.). Both should confirm that they peaked earlier this year, but the moderation in inflation in both may not be enough to stop the Fed from concluding that more rate hikes are needed to subdue inflationary pressures. The PPI may show more moderation

Ed Yardeni

Good News Bears

Oct 7, 2022 1 min read paid

The good news is that the S&P 500 rose 1.5% this past week. The bad news is that it gave back almost all of the rally that occurred during the first two days of the week and is only 1.5% above the bear market's low of last Friday. This week showed that bad (good) economic news is good (bad) for the stock market. Monday

Ed Yardeni

The Fed Is Too Hawkish

Oct 6, 2022 2 min read

Stock prices were beat down today by three downbeat and hawkish Fed officials (Fed Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic). They all repeated the Fed's party line: Inflation is too high and the Fed must continue to raise interest rates to bring it down. They reiterated what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his September 21 presser. He mentioned the

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Back Down to 0.61

Oct 5, 2022 1 min read paid

(1) The BBR dropped for the third week in a row to 0.61--the lowest since the June 21 week’s 0.60 (chart below). (2) Bullish sentiment held steady at 25.4% this week (the fewest bulls since early 2016) after falling the prior two weeks from 32.4%.

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Services

Oct 5, 2022 1 min read

Following today's release of September's nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI), the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised Q3's growth rate from 2.3% (saar) to 2.7%. Consumer spending and real-gross private domestic investment were revised higher from 0.7% to 1.1% and from -4.1% to -3.6%. The next recession might be the most widely anticipated recession

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Valuation Question

Oct 5, 2022 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Oct 4 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. The air continued to come out of valuation multiples last week, as inflation remains persistent and interest rates remain elevated. There’s an inverse correlation between the S&P 500’s P/E and the

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Performance Derby: Two Good Days

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read

Today and Monday were two good days for the bulls. The question is whether the 5.7% jump in the S&P 500 is just a mini relief rally in a major bear market, or a sign that the worst is over. We are inclined to sit on the fence with our trading-range outlook for the rest of the year. We think that the range is between the

Ed Yardeni

Fed Wants To See Fewer Job Openings

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read paid

It's been a great October so far for bond and stock investors. Last week's pivot by the Bank of England seems to have convinced investors that the Fed now must give more weight to financial stability, which means that the current monetary tightening cycle might end sooner rather than later.

Ed Yardeni

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