Archive

MARKET CALL: What If the Fed Hints At A September Rate Cut Next Week?

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read paid

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are down to 4.7% based on futures pricing from the CME FedWatch Tool. A strong June jobs report, which added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls and showed the unemployment rate drop to 4.1%, has significantly reduced expectations for a July cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers have emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach,

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 21-25

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read

This might be a good week to take a summer vacation. The economic data calendar is light. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell will speak in Washington, perhaps offering an update on his views on employment, inflation, and interest rates. He won't comment on calls for his resignation. Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman could make some news at the same conference the following day. The European Central Bank is

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Trump Dealing ... Consumers Consuming ... Employers Employing

Jul 17, 2025 4 min read paid

Liberation Day II is coming on August 1. President Donald Trump has stated that it won't be postponed, unlike Liberation Day I, which was initially scheduled for April 2 but was postponed to July 9 and then to August 1. According to a July 10 Reuters report, Trump is considering raising his 10% base tariff to 15% or 20% on most trading partners by that deadline. That would

Ed Yardeni

PPI Report Comes With A Warning Label!

Jul 16, 2025 2 min read paid

On Tuesday, June's CPI report was warmer than expected. Today's June PPI report was cooler than expected. Yesterday, we argued that while Trump's tariffs may not be boosting inflation, they may have halted its fall to the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. Measures of consumer price inflation may be stuck closer to 3.0% for a while as a result. This reduces

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs Ain’t Over

Jul 16, 2025 1 min read paid

We had expected that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil would have subsided by now, and investors probably assumed the same since the financial markets have been so okay with it all in recent weeks. But the resilience of the economy, the moderation of inflation, and the calmness of the markets seem to have emboldened the President: He has not relented on his tariff war with the world as expected by now

Ed Yardeni

Is Inflation Stuck At 3.0% Because Of Trump's Tariffs?

Jul 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's CPI report for June suggests that consumer price inflation is no longer declining toward the Fed's 2.0% target. Instead, it might continue to hover around 3.0% for a while as it has recently (chart). Trump's tariffs may be a contributing factor, though their impact remains debated. The core CPI inflation rate upticked to 2.9% last month, hinting that the core

Ed Yardeni

Russian Roulette, the Dollar, and Gold

Jul 14, 2025 3 min read paid

The US stock market held up very well today in the face of Trump's escalation of his trade war with the world over the weekend. Maybe that's because he threatened that his latest tariff salvo won't be fired until August 1 (i.e., Liberation Day II). So there is still time to negotiate trade deals. Today, he also threatened to impose 100% "secondary&

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Trump's Reign Of Tariffs Ain't Over

Jul 13, 2025 9 min read paid

💡The following is an advance excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated July 14, 2025. We are providing it in place of our usual Market Call QuickTakes. Trump’s Tariffs I: More Tariff Turmoil. It’s July. Back in March, we expected that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT) would become less tumultuous by the end of the summer. We figured that President Donald Trump would start to declare victory in his

Ed Yardeni

Week Ahead: July 14 - 18

Jul 13, 2025 4 min read

This will be a jampacked week for economic indicators and big banks' Q2 earnings reports. We are relatively optimistic about the latter, which should be bullish for the stock market. The inflation news may show some signs of tariff-related warming. Consumer-related data are likely to be be mixed. The White House will probably keep tariffs and the Fed in the news on a daily basis. On balance, we expect

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

DEEP DIVE: Trump & Bessent Versus Powell & The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 13, 2025 4 min read

💡This is an excerpt from the July 7, 2025 Morning Briefing of Yardeni Research, Inc. US Debt I: Trump vs Powell. President Donald Trump wants lower interest rates. He blames Fed Chair Jerome Powell for keeping them too high. He has been saying so since his first term in office as President. He said so again on June 27: “I think we should be paying 1% right now, and we’

Ed Yardeni

The Roaring 2020s: Six Years of Resilience, So Far

Jul 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The economy won't let us down. Despite numerous crises, real GDP has remained recession-resistant since the Covid lockdown during the first half of 2020. That's almost six recession-free years notwithstanding the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the tightening of monetary policy, the war in the Middle East, and Trump's Tariff Turmoil. Despite the five crises, it really has been the Roaring 2020s so

Ed Yardeni

Uncertainty & Breadth

Jul 9, 2025 3 min read paid

At the end of last year, the words "uncertain" and "uncertainty" appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year's meetings. The June 17-18 meeting minutes released today included those words 28 times. During his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the two words 19 times. Most of

Ed Yardeni