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The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 13-17

Feb 12, 2023 2 min read paid

Financial markets are likely to be action packed this week because the economic calendar is jampacked with key economic indicators that will impact the debate about both the economic and inflation outlooks, and their impact on Fed policy. The inflation action starts on Monday with January's FRBNY consumer inflationary expectations survey likely to show some more moderation in the one-year ahead series (chart). January's CPI (Tue)

Ed Yardeni

January's CPI Is Coming. Run For The Hills?

Feb 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The big event this week will be January's CPI release on Tuesday. Bond yields rose and stock prices fell last week as investors started anticipating a bad print. The Cleveland Fed provides a daily model-based Inflation Nowcast. On February 10, it showed the headline and core indexes increasing 0.65% and 0.46% last month. These are high compared to the MarketWatch consensus of 0.4% and 0.

Ed Yardeni

In Government We Trust

Feb 10, 2023 2 min read

Over the past 12 months through January, the federal budget deficit totaled "only" $1.6 trillion. That's down from over $4.0 trillion during the pandemic, but it has been widening again in recent months (chart). The bond market rarely reacts to the Treasury's monthly deficit release. That's remarkable considering that the Fed stopped buying and rolling over maturing Treasury securities last

Ed Yardeni

Join Me As My Guest In NYC With A Special Valentine's Day Discount

Feb 10, 2023 2 min read

I’m incredibly excited about an upcoming opportunity for you and I to meet personally, talk investing strategies, and answer any in-depth questions you might have (not to mention I can save you $200 in the process)! Specifically, I am speaking at MoneyShow’s landmark Global Portfolio Strategy Summit. It runs from Feb. 19-21, 2023 at the New York Marriott at the Brooklyn Bridge, and it’s going to be

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Who Will Win the AI Search Arms Race?

Feb 9, 2023 4 min read paid

This week, both Microsoft and Google made announcements touting their artificial intelligence (AI) prowess and plans as they battle to dominate the nascent AI niche, which some believe will be as important as the iPhone or cloud computing. Of course, they’re not alone. Venture capitalists poured money into the more than 75 startups, by some counts, that aspire to conquer the hot area. Let’s look at what some

Ed Yardeni

They're back!

Feb 8, 2023 2 min read

We warned you that they would be back soon. The FOMC's blackout period ended last Thursday. Fed officials have been squawking like hawks again since Friday. They are all sending more or less the same message. They are aiming to continue to hike the federal funds rate in 25bps increments a couple more times to 5.00%-5.25%. That should be restrictive enough to bring inflation down,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/6/23

Feb 8, 2023 1 min read

Last week brought plenty of affirmation for stock-market bulls, with lots of favorable data releases and a less hawkish-sounding Fed Chair Powell. The data depicted an economy that has not been landing at all but remaining quite airborne amid more signs of disinflation. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.

Ed Yardeni

Breadth Is Looking Up

Feb 7, 2023 1 min read paid

First the bad news: Industry analysts are continuing to cut their earnings estimates for this year and next year (chart). Nevertheless, as of the February 2 week, the analysts collectively still were projecting an increase this year of 2.3% to $224.31 and an increase of 11.2% next year to $249.52. Those estimates are consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown in earnings this year and better growth next

Ed Yardeni

Fed Chair Not Likely to Stir Things Up Tomorrow

Feb 6, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell isn't likely to upset the financial markets tomorrow if he says what he said at his press conference last week. The word “disinflation” was uttered 11 times at Powell’s presser on February 1. He was the only one who mentioned the word at his presser. He repeatedly acknowledged that inflation was moderating but still had a ways to go before reaching the Fed’

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 6 - 10

Feb 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The FOMC's blackout period ended on Friday. So we can look forward to lots of chatter from the Fed heads until the start of the next period on March 11. They are likely to parrot Fed Chair Jerome Powell's moderately less hawkish outlook for monetary policy, as he explained it at his presser last Wednesday: Inflation is moderating for goods, but not yet for services. So

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Feb 4, 2023 2 min read paid

Our go-to market maven is Joe Feshbach. We asked him to share his latest thoughts about the S&P 500 from his perspective based on his 40+ years of trading the markets. He has turned cautious:

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500's Comeback Kids