The FOMC's blackout period ended on Friday. So we can look forward to lots of chatter from the Fed heads until the start of the next period on March 11. They are likely to parrot Fed Chair Jerome Powell's moderately less hawkish outlook for monetary policy, as he explained it at his presser last Wednesday:
Inflation is moderating for goods, but not yet for services. So the federal funds rate may have to be hiked a couple more times by 25bps each time and kept there for a while. Disinflation has just started so the Fed needs to maintain a restrictive stance.
The financial markets seem to have discounted that outlook quite rapidly during January and the first few days of February. So, now what? The answer to that question isn't likely to be answered by this week's light batch of economic indicators. The next Big number is January's CPI on Valentine's Day.
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