Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/29/22

Aug 29, 2022 1 min read

Keeping track of whether Fed Chair Powell is dovish or hawkish is making us dizzy. His latest clues—dropped at last week’s Jackson Hole conference—reversed the dovish impression he’d left in July that caused stocks to rally. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. So stocks pivoted

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings At Record Highs

Aug 28, 2022 1 min read

Our weekly forward metrics for S&P 500 revenues, earnings, and the profit margin continue to accurately track their quarterly counterparts (chart below). Revenues and earnings both rose to record highs during Q2, up 12.1% and 9.5% y/y, respectively. Q2 earnings per share rose to a record $231. S&P 500's profit margin was 13.4% during Q2, near recent record highs. So

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead (Aug. 29-Sept. 2)

Aug 28, 2022 1 min read paid

Time marches on! September is almost here. The week ahead is packed with employment data starting with July's JOLTS (Tues.), jobless claims (Thurs.), and August's employment report (Fri.). August's consumer confidence survey (Tues.) will also provide insights into the availability of jobs.

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Fugetaboutit Speech

Aug 27, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did pivot on Friday morning at Jackson Hole in his 8-minute speech on the outlook for monetary policy. He turned much more hawkish than the financial markets expected. In his short talk, he managed to walk back any hint of dovishness he might have conveyed during his previous public appearance in a press conference on July 27. Back then, his often ambiguous off-the-cuff responses to reporters

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Speech: Short & Hawkish

Aug 26, 2022 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech today at the Fed's Jackson Hole conference was short and hawkish. He reiterated that the Fed's job is to bring inflation down even though doing so is bound to weigh on economic growth and cause some weakness in the labor market. He quashed any lingering expectations that the Fed would pause its tightening and might lower interest rates next

Ed Yardeni

The Calm Before The Storm?

Aug 25, 2022 1 min read

They say that the stock market tends to climb a wall of worry. It has been doing just that since the S&P 500 bottomed at 3666.77 on June 16. It rose 1.4% today even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, and might sound more hawkish to compensate for sounding too dovish at his prior speaking

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Tug-Of-War Continues Between the Bulls & The Bears

Aug 25, 2022 4 min read paid

The latest bear market started on January 3, 2022, when the S&P 500 peaked at a record-high 4796.56. That’s undisputable. But whether the bear market ended on June 16 at a closing low of 3666.77 is a question of great dispute. The bulls, including Joe and me, think so. The bears believe that the bear market isn’t over and that new lows are ahead.

Ed Yardeni

The Chairman's Speech: What Will Jerome Powell Say?

Aug 24, 2022 2 min read

Have you heard? Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday morning at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, which is held at a nice resort at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Odds are he won't change his tune much from what he said in his prepared remarks at his July 27 presser, which was less than a month ago. Since then: July'

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Earnings Stalling

Aug 24, 2022 1 min read paid

The forward earnings* of the S&P 500 peaked at a record high in late June, just before the start of Q2's earnings reporting season. Since then industry analysts have been shaving their 2022 and 2023 earnings estimates. As a result, forward earnings has stalled. Let's drill down to the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 (chart below):

Ed Yardeni

The Most Bearish Two Charts In Our Collection

Aug 23, 2022 1 min read

On our website, thousands of our charts are automatically updated as new data become available. The most bearish of the lot are shown below. The first one shows the Fed's holdings of securities versus the S&P 500. The second shows the former versus the forward P/E of the S&P 500. We added a dotted line to track the Fed’s QT2, which ramps

Ed Yardeni

Flash US Business Indicators Flashing Orange

Aug 23, 2022 1 min read paid

S&P Global released its August flash indexes based on its surveys of US manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers. They are flashing an ongoing slowdown, especially for the NM-PMI. Our quick take is that the data are confirming our "growth recession" assessment of the US economy in 2022.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/22/22

Aug 22, 2022 1 min read

The economic slowdown so far this year is not the game-changing “official” recession so widely feared. Waiting and waiting for this Godot of a recession is muting economic activity, but also inhibiting excesses. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. That’s why we expect any recession that does show

Ed Yardeni

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