Ed Yardeni

It's (Unofficially) a Recession!

Jun 30, 2022 2 min read

The economy continues to teeter on the edge of a recession. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows Q2's real GDP growth at -1.0% (saar). It was revised down from 0.3% following this morning's release of May's personal income and consumption data. The model shows real consumer spending up 1.7%, a downward revision from 2.7%. In addition, real

Ed Yardeni

European Consumers Are Very Depressed

Jun 29, 2022 1 min read paid

On June 23, Bloomberg reported: “Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has built a $10.5 billion bet against European companies, almost doubling its wager in the past week to its most bearish stance against the region’s stocks in two years.” It seems like a good strategy to short Europe over the near term, especially if tensions between Russia and Europe escalate.

Ed Yardeni

Will Covid Zero Be Followed by Higher Inflation?

Jun 29, 2022 1 min read paid

China's experience with Covid Zero raises the age-old question of whether the cure is worse than the disease. For global investors, the question is if and when China relaxes its Covid Zero restrictions will global inflation soar along with commodity prices?

Ed Yardeni

Bears Are Waiting for Something to Break

Jun 29, 2022 2 min read

Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) remained under 1.0 during the June 28 week at 0.82 for the ninth consecutive week. It has been bouncing around 1.00 since late February. In other words, it hasn't worked as a short-term contrarian indicator given that the S&P 500 has been falling since it peaked on January 3. However, the BBR might have signaled at least

Ed Yardeni

Supply-Chain Disruptions Easing. More Supply or Less Demand?

Jun 28, 2022 1 min read

June's surveys of five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks strongly suggest that supply-chain disruptions have eased significantly in recent months. However, that has yet to relieve inflationary pressures according to the surveys. The question is whether the drops in regional indexes tracking unfilled orders and delivery times during the first half of this year reflect more ample supplies or diminishing demand. Presumably, if demand is taking

Ed Yardeni

June's Regional Business Surveys Were Recessionary

Jun 28, 2022 2 min read paid

It's hard to come up with anything positive to say about June's batch of regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. That's because they were mostly in negative territory (chart below). They certainly add to the credibility of the recession-is-here scenario. However, the regional surveys tend to focus on manufacturing rather than services. Indeed, the averages of the

Ed Yardeni

Regional Business Surveys Bearish for New Orders

Jun 27, 2022 1 min read

The economy is teetering. After the release of durable goods orders this morning, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model showed Q2 real GDP rising by a paltry 0.3% (saar), but up from 0.0% previously. Nondefense capital goods orders, a measure of capital spending, rose at a better-than-expected pace of 0.5% m/m (9.8% y/y) during May to yet another record high. However, some of

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 6/27/22

Jun 26, 2022 1 min read

The best laid plans of climate activists have gone majorly awry: Soaring fossil fuel prices haven’t increased demand for and supply of “clean” energy sources, as they’d expected, while demand for fossil fuels exceeds supplies. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. And activists’ pressure on European governments

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: How's Business?

Jun 26, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing. Every month, the Census Bureau releases its “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services.” The latest report was released on June 15 at 8:30 a.m. An hour and a half later every month, the Census Bureau releases its “Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales” report—for the previous month. In other words, on June 15, Census reported retail sales

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/27/22

Jun 25, 2022 2 min read

The week ahead is jam packed with June regional and national economic surveys. They are likely to confirm that we live in stagflationary times. Key consumer indicators are likely to show that Americans are spending less on goods, more on services, and much more on everything because of inflation. More specifically: (1) Among the biggies will be the national M-PMI on Friday, which is the first day of July. It

Ed Yardeni

A Good Relief Rally

Jun 24, 2022 1 min read paid

What a relief to finally have a good relief rally in the stock market. Consider the following: (1) The S&P 500 was up 6.4% this week, and 6.7% since it bottomed on Thursday, June 16 at 3666.77. It was down 23.6% back then from its January 3 record high. Now it is down 18.4% from that peak. (2) The S&P 500&

Ed Yardeni

Oil Prices Might Be Peaking

Jun 24, 2022 2 min read

The best cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. They are boosting production, while weighing on demand. As a result, crude oil prices may be peaking, which would certainly help to cause overall inflation to peak. Consider the following recent developments: (1) US petroleum output rose to 19.4mbd during April, with crude oil field production rising to 11.9mbd, natural gas liquids at 5.5mbd, biofuels at

Ed Yardeni

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