Ed Yardeni

Rollercoaster Ride in the Bond Market

Apr 10, 2023 2 min read paid

At the start of this year, the widespread economic consensus was that a hard landing is coming. The consensus changed dramatically during February, when January’s stronger-than-expected economic indicators suggested that a no-landing scenario was more likely. Last week’s batch of economic indicators revived concerns about a hard landing. We watched this rollercoaster ride with our feet firmly planted on the ground. The outlook still looks

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 10-14

Apr 9, 2023 1 min read paid

The banking crisis is bound to keep investors on edge. This week, the big banks will report their earnings. Last week, in his annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders, Jamie Dimon wrote "the crisis is not yet over." The other executives at the major banks are likely to say the same during their earnings conference calls later this week. The magnitude of their concern will be revealed by

Ed Yardeni

On the Lookout for a Bank Credit Crunch

Apr 9, 2023 3 min read

The Silicon Valley Bank imploded on Friday, March 10. To avert a widespread bank run, the Fed announced, on Sunday, March 12, that liquidity would be provided by the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). The Fed's press release stated that this new liquidity facility will offer loans of up to one year in length to financial intermediaries pledging US Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other

Ed Yardeni

Sentimental Journey: Mixed Feelings

Apr 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The Bull-Bear Ratio climbed for the second week to 1.94 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year—after falling the prior two weeks from 1.83 to 1.38 (chart). Bullish sentiment increased for the second week, jumping to 48.6% this week, equaling the end-of-January peak, which was the highest since the end of 2021. Bulls outnumbered bears for the

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Rally 'Don't Get No Respect'

Apr 5, 2023 1 min read

The comedian Rodney Dangerfield often lamented during his hilarious monologues , "I don't get no respect." That applies to the stock market rally since October 12. The naysayers are saying that it is a bear market rally and that the S&P 500 will soon be falling below its October 12 low. They also claim that only the MegaCap-8 stocks have participated in the rally,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/3/23

Apr 5, 2023 1 min read paid

The S&L crisis of 1990 caused a mild, short-lived recession impacting earnings but not triggering a bear market in stocks. Conversely, we had a bear market last year but no recession (yet?). Similarly, though, the commercial real estate market was hit hard during 1990’s banking crisis and stands now in the eye of the SVB storm, since small banks—the most vulnerable—make most CRE loans.

Ed Yardeni

Bond Yields Spiraling Downward

Apr 5, 2023 2 min read

What does the bond market know that the equity market doesn't? The yield on the 10-year Treasury is down from 4.25% on October 24, 2022 to 3.29% today. The S&P 500 is up 8.0% over the same period. Bond investors must believe that the banking crisis will soon morph into a credit crunch and a recession, so inflation will continue to fall

Ed Yardeni

Falling Interest Rates

Apr 4, 2023 2 min read

Interest rates continued to fall today after Jamie Dimon, who is the President, CEO & Chairman of JP Morgan Chase, warned that the banking crisis is "not yet over" and will cause "repercussions for years to come." He did so in his annual letter to stockholders. With all those titles, he must know what he is talking about. He observed that potential losses from held-to-

Ed Yardeni

OPEC+ Cuts Oil Production

Apr 4, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 3, 2023 2 min read paid

No news is good news. Every day that nothing terrible happens in the banking system is a good day for the stock market. That helps to explain last week's strong rally (up 3.5%) (chart). Yes, but this morning, there's bad news on the energy front as OPEC+ is cutting oil production sending oil prices higher. That's good news for the S&P

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Will the Banks Bust the Economy?

Apr 2, 2023 3 min read paid

Banking I: Disintermediation 2.0? The bear case last year was that the Fed would have to tighten monetary policy aggressively because the Fed was behind the inflation curve and had to scramble to catch up. That would cause a recession, which is the only way to bring inflation down, according to the narrative. As a result, valuation multiples would tumble, and so would earnings. That scenario played out well

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 3-7

Apr 2, 2023 1 min read paid

Once again, more important than the economic news this week might be if it is another one without bad news from the banks. In any event, it is a big week for employment indicators, which are likely to confirm that the labor market remains relatively strong. February's JOLTS report (Tue) should show that job openings remain plentiful (chart). Jobless claims remain low too. March data for payrolls from

Ed Yardeni

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