Ed Yardeni

No Recession Yet In Forward Profit Margins

Jun 23, 2022 1 min read

Corporate profit margins always plunge during recessions. They aren't doing so at this time, thus raising doubts about the credibility of imminent-recession forecasts. We can monitor the profit margins of the S&P 500 along with its 11 sectors and 100+ industries on a weekly basis using forward profit margins derived as the ratio of forward earnings to forward revenues, which are time-weighted averages of the consensus

Ed Yardeni

Dr. Copper May Be Signaling Peak Inflation

Jun 23, 2022 1 min read paid

Dr. Copper, the base metal with a PhD in economics, may be signaling a top in the CRB raw industrials spot price index. It dropped below $4.00 for the first time this year to $3.92 today (chart below). It may be predicting a global economic slowdown, but it's too soon to tell if it is foreshadowing an impending US recession.

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Lowest Since March 2009!

Jun 22, 2022 2 min read

Bears started coming out of hibernation early this year. Now they are roaming all over the stock market. Here are the latest bearish sentiment readings, which are bullish from a contrarian perspective: (1) The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) was below 1.00 for the eighth consecutive week this week. It slipped for the third week to 0.60 this week—the lowest reading since early March 2009, which was when

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 6/21/22

Jun 21, 2022 1 min read

In today's Webcast: “What planet are you from?,” analysts and investors may be wondering of each other these days, with the former super bullish and the latter super bearish. Analysts weren’t bullish enough about Q1 earnings. Yet investors are solely focused on the recession risk as the Fed fights inflation and have been pounding down valuations. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast

Ed Yardeni

A Couple of Bullish Bond Market Indicators

Jun 21, 2022 2 min read

Is the bond yield heading higher or lower? It should be heading higher given that it remains well below the rate of inflation. That’s unless investors believe that inflation is more likely to move lower than higher over the next few years if not in the immediate future. In any event, two useful bond market indicators are currently bullish for bonds and offer some hope for stocks too: (1)

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Revisiting Venus and Mars

Jun 21, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our June 21, 2022 Morning Briefing. Strategy I: Investors Are Still from Mars. Our May 18 Morning Briefing was titled “Analysts Are from Venus; Investors Are from Mars.” We wrote: “Stock market investors seem to believe that industry analysts are becoming increasingly delusional. The latter have been raising their revenues and earnings estimates since the start of the year, while the former have been cutting

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/21/22

Jun 20, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead is a short one for the financial markets, and it is a light one for US economic indicators. But that doesn’t mean it will be a quiet week for the markets, since we live in volatile times. May data for existing home sales (to be released on Tuesday) and new home sales (on Friday) are likely to show that the housing market is falling deeper into

Ed Yardeni

The Best Cure for High Commodity Prices

Jun 20, 2022 1 min read paid

In the commodity pits, traders often say: "The best cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices." That's because when a commodity price soars, it depresses demand for the commodity and stimulates the supply of it. History shows that an even better cure for high commodity prices is a recession. During the late phase of economic expansions, the economy tends to boom. That drives up

Ed Yardeni

Well Below the 200-Day Moving Average

Jun 19, 2022 1 min read

Some widely followed technical and sentiment indicators suggest that the stock market is oversold and due for a rally. Consider the following: (1) The S&P 500 was extremely overbought last year. Around mid-year 2021, more than 90% of the stocks in the index were trading above their 200-day moving averages (dma). There has been a significant reversal of fortune since then with only 11.3% of the S&

Ed Yardeni

In the Event of Motion Sickness

Jun 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Below is the front cover of the latest Bloomberg Businessweek. It should be a very bullish contrary indicator for the stock market. In recent months, there have been plenty of signs of mounting bearish sentiment, which should be bullish from a contrarian perspective. However, fighting the Fed when the Fed is fighting inflation is not a good idea whether one is a contrarian or not. We still expect to see

Ed Yardeni

No Letup in the Valuation Meltdown

Jun 18, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500’s forward P/E fell to 15.4 on Friday from just over 20.0 at the start of this year. That’s around the historical average for this valuation multiple. Lower readings typically have been associated with bear markets and recessions. The index fell into a bear market on Monday, but the jury is out on the recession call.

Ed Yardeni

A Horrible Week Even for Energy

Jun 18, 2022 1 min read

This was one of the worst weeks in one of the worst years, so far, for the stock market. Of the 100+ industries that we track in the S&P 500, only one was up, namely, Air Freight & Logistics. All the rest were down with more than half exceeding the 5.8% decline of the S&P 500. Keep in mind that the S&P 500

Ed Yardeni

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