Public Is the Worst Over For Bonds? May 3, 2022 1 min read We are keeping an eye on the Citibank Economic Surprise Index (ESI), which is highly correlated with the 13-week change in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. The ESI measures the degree to which economic data are either beating or missing expectations. Ed Yardeni
Public Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar 5/2/22 May 2, 2022 1 min read Spooked investors have driven valuation multiples down to the low end of our projected range and deposited the Nasdaq in a bear market and the S&P 500 back in correction territory. Ed Yardeni
Public Inflation Is Deflating Valuation Multiples Apr 30, 2022 1 min read More air came out of valuation multiples this past week. Here are the forward P/Es of the major indexes at the start of this year and on Friday: Ed Yardeni
Public Regional Business Surveys: More of the Same Apr 29, 2022 1 min read April's national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers will be out on Monday. We expect that the M-PMI composite index is likely to remain around its March reading of 57.1 Ed Yardeni
Public The Ups & Downs of the S&P 500 Apr 26, 2022 2 min read While industry analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for this year and next year, investors continue to take the air out of valuation multiples. Ed Yardeni
Public Weak Yen & Yuan. Mighty Dollar. Apr 26, 2022 1 min read The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is an outlier. While all the other major central banks are turning more hawkish, the BOJ remains extremely dovish. This is causing the yen to dive. Ed Yardeni
Public Germany’s Stagflation Apr 25, 2022 1 min read Germany is experiencing stagflation: (1) The German IFO business confidence index plunged during March because of the jump in energy prices that resulted from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Then in April, it rebounded slightly to 86.7 from 84.9 in March. (2) German companies are experiencing more supply-chain problems, and their costs are soaring as a result of the war, which has also raised consumer prices. The German Ed Yardeni
Public Do Industry Analysts Anticipate Recessions? Apr 24, 2022 2 min read One of our accounts in Luxembourg requested that we determine how well industry analysts’ earnings estimates anticipate recessions. The recent weakness in the S&P 500’s forward P/E has been partly offset by the continued rise of consensus earnings estimates to record highs. Some of these increases probably reflect steady profit margins as companies pass their rising costs through to their selling prices. It’s widely recognized Ed Yardeni