Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/1/22

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

We’ve been making the case that the latest bear market might have bottomed on June 16. So far, so good. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. Just a few weeks back, industry analysts’ earnings estimates suggested they were oblivious to investors’ recession fears, and we quipped that the

Ed Yardeni

Signs of Peak Inflation

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

Today was a good day for those of us expecting to see peak inflation soon. July's US manufacturing purchasing managers (M-PMI) survey found that the M-PMI prices-paid index dropped to 60.0 from 87.1 in January. That's not surprising since the prices-paid and prices-received indexes that we compile from the five regional business surveys confirmed that inflationary pressures may be

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, August 1-5

Jul 31, 2022 2 min read paid

Can you believe it’s August already? This week, we’ll get lots of data on business activity, employment, consumers, housing, and construction. On balance, it should all be consistent with our growth recession scenario. Consider the following: (1) Business. On Monday, ISM’s M-PMI is likely to fall closer to 50.0. A similar index that we compile from the 5 regional Fed surveys was very weak last

Ed Yardeni

Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?

Jul 31, 2022 1 min read

The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now. The US Treasury bond yield peaked this year (so far) at 3.49% on June 14, falling to 2.67% on Friday. That’s surprising given that inflation remains so high. But we aren’t surprised. As we’ve pointed out

Ed Yardeni

Revaluing Earnings

Jul 30, 2022 1 min read paid

In the past few weeks, industry analysts started to shave their S&P 500 earnings forecasts for this year and next year. Last Wednesday, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75bps to 2.25%-2.50%. On Thursday, we learned that real GDP fell for a second quarter in a row marking a technical recession, though a mild one so far. So, naturally, the stock market has

Ed Yardeni

US Regional Business Slowing; Inflation Peaking

Jul 29, 2022 1 min read

July's national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI) will be released on Monday. Will investors cheer it? The regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve district banks suggest that the M-PMI should fall closer to 50.0 from June's 53.0 (chart below). The M-PMI's prices-paid index, which remained very high at 78.5, should also moderate

Ed Yardeni

Tomorrow's ECI Could Be Bad News

Jul 28, 2022 1 min read paid

Q2's Employment Cost Index (ECI) comes out tomorrow morning. In his press conference yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell assessed inflationary pressures in the labor market. He said: "There's some evidence that wages, if you look at average hourly earnings [AHE], they appear to be moderating. Not so yet from the other wage measures. And we'll be getting the employment compensation index measurement I

Ed Yardeni

It's A Banana!

Jul 28, 2022 1 min read

Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "growth recession" in our opinion. It is widely believed that two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP is an outright recession. However, it won't be an official recession until the Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. They might not do so since

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: How Much Rate Hiking Does QT2 Equal?

Jul 28, 2022 3 min read paid

Melissa and I have been wondering how much federal funds rate hiking does the current round of quantitative tightening (QT2) equal? Last week, in the July 20 Morning Briefing, we asked a similar question about the 10% increase in the US dollar index (DXY) since the start of this year.

Ed Yardeni

Summer Rally

Jul 27, 2022 1 min read

We've been making the case that June 16 might have been the bear-market low in the S&P 500 when it closed at 3666.77. It was up 2.6% today to 4023.61, a 9.7% gain since last month's low. Today's performance was especially impressive. Instead of focusing on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkishness on inflation at his

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Today's GDP Indicators

Jul 27, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future

Jul 26, 2022 1 min read

Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks bright, the future is looking darker. July's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) continued to decline in July as it has been since mid-2021 (down to 95.7), led by its falling expectations component (down to 65.3) (chart below). The current conditions component edged down in

Ed Yardeni

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