Ed Yardeni

How To Spot A Meltup

Feb 14, 2024 2 min read paid

We are sure that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has recently reread former Fed-Chair Alan Greenspan's December 5, 1996 speech in which he famously asked: "But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy?" How

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/14/24

Feb 14, 2024 1 min read paid

High inflation rarely has been tamed without precipitating a recession. Few economic prognosticators thought it could be done. Yet the Fed has steered inflation down toward its 2.0% target while allowing the US economy to fly, avoiding a hard landing. Today, we look at the projections of economists who expected a hard landing of the economy and why their trusty models and indicators failed them. Below is exclusive early

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Scare

Feb 13, 2024 2 min read paid

Today, January's CPI inflation rate was slightly higher than expected. But the upside surprise was enough to convince investors and traders that the Fed is less likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) soon or by as much as they expected over the next 12 months. The 12-month federal FFR futures rose to 4.44% today, up from 3.74% on January 15 (chart). That amounts to

Ed Yardeni

Bull Chasers

Feb 12, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is up 40.5% since the start of the current bull market on October 12, 2022 (chart). Along the way, there was a 10.3% correction from July 31 to October 27, 2023. Since then, it has been a 22.1% meltup through Friday’s close. Furthermore, the Wilshire 5000 market capitalization is up $14 trillion since October 14, 2022 and $9.3 trillion since

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: A Meltup For All Seasons

Feb 11, 2024 2 min read

The stock market has been melting up since late October 2023, when investors concluded that the Fed was done raising interest rates. It melted up during the fall and winter. We think it might continue to do so in the spring and summer. It could be a meltup for all seasons. Leading the S&P 500 stock price index to a new record high on Friday was the S&

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 12-16

Feb 11, 2024 2 min read

Powell & Co. would like to see more evidence that inflation is falling toward their 2.0% target. They should get more of it this week. January's headline and core CPI inflation rates (Tue) should be 0.2% and 0.3% m/m, and 3.0% and 3.8% y/y, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model. We will be focusing on these inflation

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Productivity Is Making A Roaring Comeback

Feb 10, 2024 3 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s economic scenario is predicated on our assumption that chronic labor shortages, especially of skilled workers, will cause businesses to boost the productivity of the available labor force. Technological advances will enable the boost, and it should be a dramatic one. Accordingly, we expect a productivity growth boom during the current decade. It may well be that the boom started at the end of 2015, was interrupted by

Ed Yardeni

Not-So-Narrow Bull Market

Feb 8, 2024 1 min read

Have the S&P 500’s eight largest-capitalization stocks, the so-called MegaCap-8, been eating all the jellybeans, starving the other 492 in the S&P 500 LargeCap index during the current bull market? No. While the eight heavyweights have been on a sugar high in this bull market, they’ve left plenty of sweets for the rest of the stock market. Since October 12, 2022, when the bull

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Closes In On 5000

Feb 7, 2024 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 closed at a new record high today of 4994.63. This is the Rodney Dangerfield of bull markets: it's getting no respect. The naysayers say that it is too narrow to be a real bull market. Narrowness also makes it vulnerable to a reversal, according to them. However, they aren't giving the bull market due credit. It's true that

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/7/24

Feb 7, 2024 1 min read paid

The pandemic distorted the economy in many ways, including derailing the productivity boom that we’d been expecting would characterize this decade—our Roaring 2020s scenario. That boom now may be back on track; productivity growth was well above the historical average during the past three quarters. If so, the ramifications for economic growth would be profound, as GDP growth is a function of labor force growth plus productivity growth.

Ed Yardeni

MegaCap-8 Continue To Impress

Feb 6, 2024 2 min read

Through Friday’s close, the S&P 500 price index is up 4.0% ytd to a record high. The MegaCap-8 collectively has outperformed with a gain of 7.6%, also a record high (chart). Without the MegaCap-8 stocks, the S&P 500 would be up 2.5% ytd. The MegaCap-8 now accounts for a record-high 28.3% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization (chart)

Ed Yardeni

Powell On "60 Minutes"

Feb 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to make sure we all get the message he delivered at his presser last Wednesday. So he appeared in an interview on "60 Minutes" Sunday night. His simple message is that almost all the members of the FOMC expect to be cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) this year. They are happy with the progress that has been made in bringing inflation down

Ed Yardeni

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