Elias Griepentrog

Bond Yields Heating Up

May 4, 2026 4 min read paid

Today, the US launched Project Freedom, deploying 15,000 service members and over 100 aircraft to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The first two US-flagged merchant tankers were successfully escorted this morning. However, Iran struck the UAE's Fujairah energy hub and a UAE oil tanker and damaged residential areas in Oman. US forces destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted multiple missiles and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Roaring 2020s Express Train

Apr 30, 2026 5 min read

Why is the stock market continuing to make new highs? It's doing so because corporate earnings are doing the same, as the economy continues to speed along without stopping for a recession. The latest batch of data certainly drove the stock market higher today, confirming that we are still riding the rails on the Roaring 2020s Express. Nothing seems to stop or derail this train. (1) GDP. The

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

No More Mr. Nice Guy

Apr 29, 2026 4 min read paid

We will miss Jerome Powell's chairmanship of the Fed. He is a nice guy. He did the best that he could as Fed chair from February 5, 2018, through May 15, 2026, when his term as chair expires. Nevertheless, he said he intends to remain a Fed governor for now. He can do so until his term on the Board of Governors expires on January 31, 2028. President

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Powell's Swan Song

Apr 28, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow at 2:30 p.m., Jerome Powell will sing his swan song. That will be his last press conference after the latest FOMC meeting. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to confirm the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell tomorrow. The Senate could move to a final vote shortly thereafter. Powell will likely explain why the FOMC is unlikely to lower the federal funds rate any time soon.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market Rally Isn't Running Out of Fuel. US Economy Still Acing Stress Tests.

Apr 23, 2026 4 min read paid

President Donald Trump may have to write a sequel to his 1987 book, "Trump: The Art of the Deal." It's hard to make a deal if you kill your opponent. He said that about Iran today again: "They’re all messed up. They have no idea who their leader is... We took out, really, three levels of leaders... So they have a hard time figuring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh, Rinse, Repeat

Apr 22, 2026 5 min read paid

We are Fed Watchers. In his Senate Banking Committee hearing yesterday, Kevin Warsh suggested that under his leadership, we might have less to watch. He advocated ending current "forward guidance" practices, which means no more quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, including the Dot Plot (chart). He suggested that a press conference after FOMC meetings should only be held when there is "important news" to deliver, rather

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Power Vacuum In Iran Isn't Fazing US Economy

Apr 21, 2026 4 min read

What if the US won the war, but Iran can't surrender because no one is in charge over there? To make a deal, President Donald Trump needs someone to deal with. He was hoping to strike a deal this week in Islamabad, but the Iranians declined to meet because they are too busy fighting among themselves. Indeed, Trump, today, said that he extended the ceasefire because "the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ENERGY: A Buying Opportunity

Apr 20, 2026 4 min read paid

We gave up on the S&P 500 Energy sector a couple of years ago. It has been underperforming the S&P 500 since late 2022 (chart). As a result of the latest war in the Middle East, it has been an outperformer since the beginning of this year through Friday, March 27. The sector has been underperforming again since then, when President Donald Trump suggested that the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market Highs Confirm US Economy Is A Winner

Apr 16, 2026 4 min read paid

The message from the stock market is clear: The US economy is passing another stress test. Both domestic and foreign investors have shifted their attention from the risks of military escalation in the Middle East back to the remarkably consistent resilience of the US economy. The results are all-time highs in equities and a fresh wave of buying by both domestic and foreign investors. Even Michael Burry is reportedly

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Champagne Glass Is More Than Half Full

Apr 15, 2026 5 min read paid

Happy days are here again! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to record highs today, which just happens to be tax day. What's all the excitement about? The AI bubble hasn't burst, so far. Instead, hyperscaler stocks are leading the charge since the stock market bottomed on March 30 (chart). The private credit bubble may be losing some air, but it isn't

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Mr. Market Says The War Is Over

Apr 14, 2026 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is now up 1.3% since Friday, February 27, the day before Gulf War III started (chart). So as far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice. The index will be at a new record high tomorrow if it increases by more than 11.22 points! It has been yet another V-shaped buy-the-dip recovery in the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ROARING 2020s: Wall Street's Analysts Even More Bullish On Earnings Than Us!

Apr 13, 2026 4 min read paid

The US economy remains resilient, and so do corporate earnings. The US economy has passed several stress tests in recent years. The war in the Middle East is proving to be the latest stress test for the US economy, which seems to be passing it, so far. The macroeconomic data released in recent weeks confirms this resilience. The pre-war growth trajectory was solid enough that we were on the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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