Elias Griepentrog

Geopolitical Release Valve Taking Pressure Off Resilient Economy

Jun 19, 2026 4 min read

The US-Iran interim peace deal is shaky; but if it holds, it will end the US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Now comes a 60-day negotiating period to hammer out a permanent agreement, centered on restricting Iran's nuclear program. The price of Brent crude oil extended its sharp decline following the peace deal announcement, with markets pricing in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Hawk In Dove's Clothing ... June Swoon Is Back ... 'We Have A Task Force On That'

Jun 17, 2026 4 min read

We weren't surprised by most of the news following today's FOMC meeting. We expected the committee to pivot from April's easing bias to a tightening bias, and they did. We expected the committee to acknowledge that, in their dual mandate, the risk of higher inflation had risen, while the risk of higher unemployment had fallen, and they did. The FOMC's Summary of

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Crib Notes For Warsh & Co. On The Fed's Dual Mandate

Jun 17, 2026 5 min read

During the final four months of 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) three times by a total of 75bps. The cuts were justified for two reasons: Inflation was approaching the Fed's 2.0% target, and the labor market was weakening. So the FFR was deemed to be too restrictive, i.e., above the "neutral" FFR. Under the Fed's dual mandate, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Why Is The US More Exuberant Than China?

Jun 16, 2026 4 min read

China has accomplished a great deal over the past few decades, transforming from a poor, insular, and rural economy to the world's second-largest economy. Its transformation has been hailed as an economic miracle. Yet this miracle hasn't been reflected in China's stock market. The China MSCI stock price index has been flatlining since the end of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2010.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bull Jumping In Crete

Jun 11, 2026 4 min read paid

Greetings from Greece. My colleagues, Elias and Toby, have been writing the QTs this week while my wife and I are vacationing in Crete and Santorini. The weather, food, and people are great. In Crete, we visited the ruins of the Palace at Knossos. It was the ceremonial and political center of the Minoan civilization and culture that thrived during the Bronze Age. We learned that for fun, Minoans enjoyed

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets

Jun 10, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of inflation and employment indicators suggests that the FOMC might adopt a neutral policy stance at next week's meeting rather than a tightening one as we have been expecting. That seemed to be the initial reaction in the US Treasury market, as 2- and 10-year yields edged lower on today's cooler-than-expected core CPI inflation news. We are sticking with our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Booming Number Of Retiring Boomers Supports Consumer Spending & Depresses Saving

Jun 9, 2026 4 min read paid

The Doomsayers have long warned about one specific vulnerability of the US economy, i.e., the sustainability of consumer spending growth. Since July 2024, real consumer spending has outpaced real disposable income growth on a y/y basis for 22 consecutive months. Spending is up 4.1% over that period, while disposable income rose just 1.1%. The widening gap has been filled by declining personal savings. The personal savings

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Employment Is Heating Up, But So Is Inflation

Jun 4, 2026 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is Wall Street's AI Boom Spreading To Main Street? Nothing To Fear But FOMO?

Jun 2, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today, rising above 7600 for the first time. On May 11, we raised our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250, still the highest forecast on Wall Street. We did so because of the strength and breadth of S&P 500 earnings during the Q1 earnings reporting season. That led us to conclude that

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflating, But Not Stagnating

May 28, 2026 5 min read paid

The three major US stock market price indexes (i.e., the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DJIA) rose to record highs again today. So did the Russell 2000. Leading the way higher were technology stocks. Driving stock prices higher was a report that the US and Iran have "mostly agreed" to extend their ceasefire by 60 days. The market ignored a warning from ExxonMobil that oil inventories

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Retiring Baby Boomers & The G-Shaped Economy

May 26, 2026 5 min read paid

Many economists continue to question the resilience of consumer spending in the US. The naysayers don't believe it's sustainable and continue to expect significant consumer retrenchment. They claim that the economy is "K-shaped," with the wealthiest 10% of households accounting for 50% of all retail spending. Those widely quoted numbers are from Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi. They make no sense

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Mindboggling: Quantum Computing + AI + Resilient Economy

May 21, 2026 4 min read

The Department of Commerce signed letters of intent to invest $2 billion in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act across nine quantum computing and hardware companies. Rather than issuing traditional research grants, the Trump administration is taking minority equity stakes in these companies in exchange for the capital, continuing a broader policy shift toward direct government ownership in strategically critical sectors (similar to previous moves with Intel and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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