Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15

May 10, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with companies representing 1% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week and another 12% the following week. Industry analysts’ consensus Q1-

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Raising Our 2026 S&P 500 Target Range Due To Earnings-Led Meltup

May 10, 2026 5 min read paid

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250. We've been bullish on earnings but not as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market. Our 2026

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

INDUSTRIES: Mag-7 Isn't The Only AI Game In Town

May 9, 2026 4 min read

Since ChatGPT was introduced in late November 2022, the AI trade has been mostly focused on the Magnificent-7, especially the big cloud companies, i.e., the "hyperscalers” (chart). For a while, they were all viewed as AI dominators until DeepSeek was released by a Chinese software company in late January 2025. Increasing confidence that US Large Language Models (LLMs) would remain competitive revived the Mag-7's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Up, Up & Away

May 3, 2026 5 min read

The stock market balloon is climbing higher, and the burners are firing. It isn't all hot air that is lifting stock prices. It's also earnings revisions, which are increasing for 2026 and 2027. Growth stocks and the Magnificent-7 have reasserted leadership over the past month. Small caps and the Russell 2000 are at fresh record highs too. Investor sentiment remains surprisingly lackluster, leaving plenty of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 4-8

May 3, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is chock-full of labor market indicators. In addition, nine Talking Fed Heads on the Federal Open Mouth Committee are on the speaking circuit, with Williams, Bowman, and Goolsbee coming up twice. Despite the elevated oil prices, the stock market continues to levitate to new highs. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude hit $110.10 intraweek and closed on Friday at $102.48.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Devil-May-Care

Apr 26, 2026 4 min read paid

In the autumn of 1956, Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal. Britain, France, and Israel invaded. The canal closed for five months. Two-thirds of Western Europe's oil moved through it, and the price of crude doubled in dollar terms before the year was out. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 10% from its July high to its October low. Tankers were forced

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 27-May 1

Apr 25, 2026 4 min read

This is one of the busiest weeks of the year on the economic calendar. Five major central banks meet: the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. Five mega-cap tech names report earnings: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. Wednesday brings the advance Q1-2025 GDP report, and Thursday the March PCED, which will show how much of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: Creative Destruction On Speed

Apr 25, 2026 4 min read

We lowered the S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors from overweight to market weight on December 7, 2025. We did so because the two sectors together accounted for 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization (chart). We were also concerned about the mounting uncertainties regarding the rate of return on hyperscalers' massive AI investments. Since then, investors have concluded that the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Animal Spirits Are Back

Apr 19, 2026 4 min read paid

When Kaiser Wilhelm II's Germany and Tsar Nicholas II's Russia squared off in the summer of 1914, the London Stock Exchange closed for five months. The New York Stock Exchange shut for four months. Investors assumed a continental war would be a calamity. World War I was a calamity for sure. However, by 1915, the NYSE had reopened, and the DJIA more than doubled by late

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

INDUSTRIALS: Earnings & P/E Multiples Boosted By Booming AI, Onshoring & Defense Spending

Apr 18, 2026 4 min read

We continue to recommend overweighting the Industrials sectors in the S&P 500, the S&P 400, and the S&P 600. Granted, their valuation multiples are high, but so are their earnings growth rates. The sector's three major indexes all remain on solid uptrends that started in 2022 (chart). The S&P 500 Industrials sector is up 11.9% ytd, the third-best

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 20-24

Apr 18, 2026 3 min read

The week starts with the Strait of Hormuz still the key risk for financial markets. Today, Iranian state media said the Strait has been closed again because the US “did not fulfill their obligations.” Iran had declared it was open on Friday. A renewed US diplomatic push could send senior officials back to talks as early as Monday, but no date has been finalized, and the situation remains fluid. In

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Yogi Was Right: 'The War Ain't Over Till It's Over'

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read paid

In his seminal work, On War (1832), Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote: "War is the continuation of politics by other means." The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their war and to talks seeking a diplomatic solution. However, their talks failed, and now they are both resuming the war. On Sunday, US Central Command said the Navy will blockade all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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