Last week’s plentiful economic news netted out to support our optimistic economic outlook through next year, bringing more signs of improving productivity, surging investment in manufacturing, and manageable inventories. Last week also brought some mixed news and some outright bad news, but we still see a 75% chance of a soft-landing scenario with disinflation and a 25% chance of a hard landing. Longer term, we’re still convinced that improving productivity will set the stage for a “Roaring 2020s” decade. Nevertheless, for the here and now, we are worrying quite a bit about the Bond Vigilantes’ hostile response to profligate fiscal policy.
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