The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the federal funds rate inverted in November; such inversions are predictive of credit crunches and recessions. They also tend to predict financial crises that halt Fed tightening. It’s too early to credit the yield-curve inversion for calling a recession, but it was spot on in presaging a crisis like SVB.
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Small banks seem vulnerable now to depositor flight, which could prompt a credit crunch impacting small businesses. … But we don’t think a credit crunch would hurt consumer spending and homebuying as much as lower interest rates will boost them. Our message to the FOMC: Give it a rest.