Mar 22, 2023 1 min read

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/20/23

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/20/23

The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the federal funds rate inverted in November; such inversions are predictive of credit crunches and recessions. They also tend to predict financial crises that halt Fed tightening. It’s too early to credit the yield-curve inversion for calling a recession, but it was spot on in presaging a crisis like SVB.

Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.

Small banks seem vulnerable now to depositor flight, which could prompt a credit crunch impacting small businesses. … But we don’t think a credit crunch would hurt consumer spending and homebuying as much as lower interest rates will boost them. Our message to the FOMC: Give it a rest.

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