No Recession in GDPNow Tracking Model

May 30, 2022 1 min read
No Recession in GDPNow Tracking Model

There’s no recession apparent in the May 27 update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model for Q2. The real GDP growth “nowcast” was revised up slightly to 1.9% (saar). Consumer spending is tracking at a solid 4.8%. Business spending on equipment was revised down sharply to only 2.8%.

Weighing most on Q2 economic activity in the Atlanta Fed model is a 5.6% decline in residential investment. That’s likely to depress spending on housing-related purchases of appliances and furniture in coming months. (The good news is that the hot price inflation in these consumer discretionary goods should cool off.)

Separately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q1 real GDP down to -1.5%. However, real consumer spending growth was revised up from 2.7% to 3.1% in the  Q1 real GDP report. A record widening of the trade deficit weighed on the Q1 growth rate.

Great! Next, complete checkout for full access to Yardeni QuickTakes.
Welcome back! You've successfully signed in.
You've successfully subscribed to Yardeni QuickTakes.
Success! Your account is fully activated, you now have access to all content.
Success! Your billing info has been updated.
Your billing was not updated.