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Rollercoaster Ride in the Bond Market
At the start of this year, the widespread economic consensus was that a hard landing is coming. The consensus changed…
Economy
The US economy tends to grow over time with occasional downturns. These QuickTakes examine the latest economic indicators to assess whether the economy is likely to remain on its upward course, or might stumble into a recession.
46 posts
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Bond Yields Spiraling Downward
What does the bond market know that the equity market doesn't? The yield on the 10-year Treasury is down from…
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Labor Market Tight. Goods Market Not So.
The Fed would like to see fewer job openings to help moderate wage inflation. The time series is reported in…
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Loose Fed Lips Sink Stocks & Bonds
Stock and bond prices fell today as two none-voting FOMC participants (Bullard & Mester) suggested that higher-for-longer interest rates will be…
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Is The Service-Providing Economy Cooling Off?
Consumers have cut back on spending on goods because they went on a goods-buying binge on them during 2020 and…
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Regional Surveys Suggest Weak M-PMI
Bonds and stocks might rally tomorrow if the M-PMI is as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted…
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The Economic Week Ahead: Sept. 19-23
It's a light week for economic releases in the US. The focus will be on the Fed. Wednesday will be…
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Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future
Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks…
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More Signs of A Mid-Cycle Slowdown
The latest batch of economic indicators are in line with our mild recession outlook (a.k.a., a mid-cycle slowdown)…
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NY Fed Survey Shows Easing Pricing Pressures
The NY Fed's July business survey showed significant declines in the prices-paid and prices-received diffusion indexes . Six-month-ahead expectations are down…
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The Economic Week Ahead 7/18/22
The week ahead is a light one for economic indicators. Monday starts out with May's Treasury International Capital System data…
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A Growth Recession?
Following today's retail sales and industrial production reports, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised real GDP growth down to…
