Economy

The US economy tends to grow over time with occasional downturns. These QuickTakes examine the latest economic indicators to assess whether the economy is likely to remain on its upward course, or might stumble into a recession.

40 posts

The Economic Week Ahead: Sept. 19-23

Public – 1 min read

It's a light week for economic releases in the US. The focus will be on the Fed. Wednesday will be action packed with the FOMC's latest policy statement and Summary…

Sep 18, 2022

Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future

Public – 1 min read

Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks bright, the future is looking darker. July's Consumer Confidence Index…

Jul 26, 2022

More Signs of A Mid-Cycle Slowdown

Paid Members – 1 min read

The latest batch of economic indicators are in line with our mild recession outlook (a.k.a., a mid-cycle slowdown). We now have June's Leading and Coincident Economic Indexes (LEI…

Jul 21, 2022

NY Fed Survey Shows Easing Pricing Pressures

Public – 1 min read

The NY Fed's July business survey showed significant declines in the prices-paid and prices-received diffusion indexes . Six-month-ahead expectations are down even more for both indexes (charts below). We will be…

Jul 19, 2022

The Economic Week Ahead 7/18/22

Public – 1 min read

The week ahead is a light one for economic indicators. Monday starts out with May's Treasury International Capital System data on net capital inflows into the US. April's data showed…

Jul 17, 2022

A Growth Recession?

Paid Members – 2 min read

Following today's retail sales and industrial production reports, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised real GDP growth down to -1.5% (saar) during Q2 from -1.2%. Real consumption…

Jul 15, 2022

Jamie's Hurricane

Public – 1 min read

The stock market is down this morning on worse-than-expected PPI inflation news, heightening fears of more aggressive Fed tightening and a recession. The yield curve spread between the 2-year and…

Jul 14, 2022

The Rent Is Too D@mn High!

Public – 1 min read

The Fed's ultra-easy monetary policies, in response to the pandemic, caused home prices to soar, and now rents are soaring. Over the 24 months through May, the median single-family home…

Jul 13, 2022

Goldilocks & the Fed

Paid Members – 1 min read

Was today’s June employment release a Goldilocks report? Payroll employment rose 372,000, and wages increased 0.3%—not too hot, not too cold. The problem is that consumer…

Jul 8, 2022

Recession: To Be Or Not To Be?

Public – 2 min read

The latest batch of leading economic indicators suggests that several coincident economic indicators might soon begin to fall. So we now place the odds of a mild recession at 55%…

Jul 6, 2022

Is the Labor Shortage Depressing the Economy?

Paid Members – 1 min read

Might this be the first economic downturn attributable to a labor shortage? That shortage is weighing on output. It is also driving up wages, but the resulting wage-price spiral is…

Jul 6, 2022

US Remains Energy Independent

Public – 2 min read

In America we just celebrated our Independence Day. We should also celebrate that we've been energy independent since 2019. So why are gasoline prices so high? Consider the following: (1)…

Jul 5, 2022