Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 102)

Going Fishing For Stock & Bond Market Bottoms

Nov 15, 2022 2 min read

Last Thursday’s lower-than-expected CPI inflation rate for October was greeted with a huge rally by stock and bond investors. They continued to discount the possibility that inflation has peaked and is heading lower following today’s PPI report for October. As a result, they seem to be concluding that the Fed’s monetary policy tightening cycle will be peaking sooner rather than later, with a terminal federal funds rate

Ed Yardeni

Ups & Downs Of Inflation

Nov 15, 2022 2 min read paid Featured

We certainly aren’t out of the inflation woods yet, but we do seem to be heading in the right direction to get out of this dark forest. Let’s review the latest batch of inflation indicators, starting with two disappointing ones: (1) Inflation expectations uptick. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its October survey of inflation expectations of Americans. It headed in the wrong way,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/14/22

Nov 14, 2022 1 min read

Economic recessions invariably produce earnings recessions, but earnings slowdowns and downturns can occur without economic recessions: Nominal GDP and revenues growth can stay strong as profit margins narrow, causing earnings growth to falter. That’s what seems to be happening now, with the earnings weakness looking like that of a soft, not hard, landing. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

The Cover Curse Hits Bitcoin

Nov 13, 2022 1 min read

Bloomberg BusinessWeek "asked the finest finance writer around, Matt Levine of Bloomberg Opinion, to write a cover-to-cover issue" of the magazine, "something a single author has done only one other time in the magazine’s 93-year history." The resulting article is a well balanced guide to the crypto world. It is dated October 25. The BusinessWeek article also once again demonstrates the curse of the front

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500's Two Great Performances

Nov 13, 2022 2 min read paid Featured

The latest bear market in stocks has had a couple of very impressive bear market rallies. The S&P 500 jumped 17.4% from June 16 through August 16 from 3666 to 4305. It is up 11.8% from October 12 through Friday's close from 3577 to 3956. It's interesting to compare the fall's great performance so far with the summer's:

Ed Yardeni

Stock Valuation Multiples May Have Bottomed

Nov 12, 2022 1 min read Featured

There are no guarantees in life. Outcomes are usually contingent on a number of other outcomes, and so on. This certainly applies to the forward P/Es of the major S&P stock indexes shown below. If we continue to see better-than-expected inflation prints in coming months, like October's CPI on Thursday, then these valuation multiples most likely bottomed on October 12, when the S&P

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, November 14-18

Nov 12, 2022 1 min read paid

You can access a “live” version of the calendar below--with links to our automatically updated charts for most of the indicators shown--at this link on our website; bookmark it for easy access. The Santa Claus rally started one month ago on October 12 following a worse-than-expected CPI print for September the next day, October 13, which was a major reversal day. October's better-than-expected CPI released last Thursday triggered

Ed Yardeni

Put Today In A Bottle and Cork It

Nov 10, 2022 2 min read paid

Yes, we know: Today's amazing stock market rally might have been just a bear market rally. It might have been a short-covering rally that reflected the extreme pessimism among investors and speculators. Just yesterday, the market dropped sharply on a couple of big earnings misses, a meltdown in crypto, and disappointment among some investors that the red wave was more like a red ripple, though the Republicans are

Ed Yardeni

A Happy Day Is Here Again For Stocks & Bonds

Nov 10, 2022 1 min read

Stocks and bonds rallied and the dollar fell after today's release of October's better-than-expected CPI. The headline rate was 7.7% y/y, lower than the 7.9% consensus and below September's reading of 8.2%. Leading the way down has been the CPI durable goods inflation rate, as we've been expecting (chart). We've been thinking that the bear market

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Sentiment Readings Mostly Bearish

Nov 10, 2022 2 min read paid

The Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio remained below 1.00 this week for the eighth consecutive week, holding at 0.96 for a third week, after falling steadily from 1.15 in mid-September to 0.57 four weeks ago—which was the lowest since March 2009 (chart). Bullish sentiment dipped for the second week to 35.2% after increasing the prior two weeks from 25.0% (the fewest bulls since

Ed Yardeni

Cryptocurrencies Are Digital Tulips

Nov 9, 2022 1 min read

Stocks sold off today partly as a result of the turmoil in cryptocurrencies markets. It was a risk-off day. Here is what I wrote in our May 11, 2021 Morning Briefing about this asset class: "I had been thinking of cryptocurrencies as 'digital tulips,' reminiscent of the 17th century tulip mania in Amsterdam that drove up tulip prices beyond reason. The difference is that cryptocurrencies are traded

Ed Yardeni

Industry Analysts Cutting S&P 500 Earnings

Nov 9, 2022 3 min read paid Featured

The following is an excerpt from our November 9, 2022 Morning Briefing. Industry analysts have yet to get the recession memo. They are still estimating that S&P 500 revenues are growing. However, they’ve been reading the memo about the squeeze on profit margins from rising costs. As a result, many of them have been reducing their estimates for the profit margins of the S&P 500

Ed Yardeni

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