Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 111)

DEEP DIVE: Has the S&P 500 Discounted a Hard Landing?

Nov 4, 2022 4 min read paid Featured

One of our accounts recently asked us to assess the extent to which the stock market has discounted a garden-variety recession. That’s an interesting question. We have been thinking and writing about this question all year. This is an excerpt from our Oct 31 Morning Briefing. Our current assessment is that the market has discounted a rolling recession, a.k.a. a “soft landing,” “growth recession,” or “mid-cycle slowdown.

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Hawkishness Boosts Bearishness

Nov 3, 2022 1 min read paid Featured

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference might have signaled his latest pivot, but this time it might be to his peak hawkishness. He said that the Fed will raise interest rates until there is convincing signs that inflation is abating, which hasn't happened so far. There will be no pause along the way and certainly no easing. The terminal federal funds rate in December's

Ed Yardeni

Powell Turns Even More Hawkish

Nov 2, 2022 2 min read Featured

During his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to read from the Volcker 2.0 script. His punchline appeared in his prepared remarks: “[W]e still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” During the Q&A portion of his presser, Powell repeated “some ways to go” several

Ed Yardeni

What Will Powell Say?

Nov 1, 2022 2 min read paid

Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC is widely expected to increase the federal funds rate by 75bps to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. There is much less certainty about what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say at his press conference at 2:30 p.m. after the meeting. The bulls, including yours truly, are hoping to hear that after another rate hike of 75bps next month to 4.50%-4.

Ed Yardeni

Regional Surveys Suggest Weak M-PMI

Oct 31, 2022 1 min read

Bonds and stocks might rally tomorrow if the M-PMI is as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. The average of the five composite indexes dropped deeper into negative territory during October (chart). The average of the new orders indexes remained near recent negative readings, while the average for the employment indexes remained solidly positive. All three are highly

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/31/22

Oct 31, 2022 1 min read paid

The bear market has clawed 30% out of stock valuations, returning the S&P 500’s forward P/E to its historical average of 15. But October 12 may have marked the bear’s bottom. If GDP and inflation perform as we expect and the Fed does what everyone expects, that bottom should hold. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 31-November 4

Oct 29, 2022 1 min read Featured

It's yet another Fed week. On Wednesday, the FOMC is expected to announce another 75bps hike to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. That would make the fourth consecutive hike of that magnitude. Fed Chair Powell will have to acknowledge that the federal funds rate is now further into restrictive territory and will be even more so come the FOMC’s December meeting, when the rate is

Ed Yardeni

What Is The Stock Market Discounting Today?

Oct 28, 2022 1 min read paid

The stock market is ripping this morning despite disappointing earnings reported by some of the S&P 500's MegaCaps this week. Why? Consider the following: (1) Today's inflation reports (for the ECI and PCED) suggest that it is peaking, though not for sure. (2) Inflation-adjusted consumer spending continues to move higher albeit slowly and led by services as spending on goods has flattened in recent

Ed Yardeni

Another Weak Regional Business Survey

Oct 27, 2022 1 min read Featured

With the exception of the 2.6% (saar) increase in Q3's real GDP, the other more forward-looking economic indicators released today were on the weak side. That might explain why the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields eased a bit this morning. In the stock market, some of the mega money that is coming out of the MegaCap-8 today is going into the DJIA-30. The former continue to miss

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Float As 2-Year Yield & Dollar Sink

Oct 26, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 bottomed this morning around 10 a.m. about 1% below yesterday's close on earnings misses by Alphabet and Microsoft. But it quickly popped back up to the surface, so it now is floating slightly above yesterday's close as of 11 a.m. The trading day isn't over, but there is an interesting dynamic playing out in the markets: (1)

Ed Yardeni

MegaCaps, ECB & ECI

Oct 25, 2022 1 min read

History shows that the Santa Claus rally usually starts during October. This year, the S&P 500 had a terrible September, falling 9.3%. Since the end of that month through today's close, the index is up 7.6%. It could be tough sledding for Santa over the rest of this week. After the close, Google missed earnings as YouTube's ad revenue disappointed. In addition,

Ed Yardeni

US Turning Into Net Exporter Of Petroleum

Oct 24, 2022 1 min read paid

On October 11, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that the US should pump more oil amid the world's energy crisis, just days after OPEC+ agreed to a production cut that is equivalent to 2% of the global supply. In a CNBC interview, he said that "America is the swing producer, not Saudi Arabia." We agree. Notwithstanding the Biden administration's hostility to domestic fossil fuel

Ed Yardeni

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