Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 136)

No Recession In Services

Oct 5, 2022 1 min read

Following today's release of September's nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI), the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised Q3's growth rate from 2.3% (saar) to 2.7%. Consumer spending and real-gross private domestic investment were revised higher from 0.7% to 1.1% and from -4.1% to -3.6%. The next recession might be the most widely anticipated recession

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Valuation Question

Oct 5, 2022 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Oct 4 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. The air continued to come out of valuation multiples last week, as inflation remains persistent and interest rates remain elevated. There’s an inverse correlation between the S&P 500’s P/E and the

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Performance Derby: Two Good Days

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read

Today and Monday were two good days for the bulls. The question is whether the 5.7% jump in the S&P 500 is just a mini relief rally in a major bear market, or a sign that the worst is over. We are inclined to sit on the fence with our trading-range outlook for the rest of the year. We think that the range is between the

Ed Yardeni

Fed Wants To See Fewer Job Openings

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read paid

It's been a great October so far for bond and stock investors. Last week's pivot by the Bank of England seems to have convinced investors that the Fed now must give more weight to financial stability, which means that the current monetary tightening cycle might end sooner rather than later.

Ed Yardeni

The Stock Market's Latest Bungee Jump

Oct 3, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 fell 2.9% last week. Today, it rallied 2.6% to 3678.43, back above the June 16 low of 3666. Why did it do so well today? Because sentiment is so bearish. More fundamentally, bad news about the economy is good news for bonds and stocks. And this morning at 10:00 am the market moved higher on news that September's M-

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/3/22

Oct 3, 2022 1 min read

The latest economic indicators suggest that the economy is doing better than expected—supported by consumer spending but dragged down by the housing recession—but also that inflation remains too high. That alignment increases the odds of more Fed tightening than previously expected, a higher terminal fed funds rate, and a Fed-induced hard landing. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This

Ed Yardeni

Is Something About To Break?

Oct 2, 2022 1 min read paid

The 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve has been inverted in recent weeks. The yield curve has a history of inverting during Fed monetary tightening cycles when investors start to believe that the rise in interest rates may be about to cause a financial crisis, which quickly turns into a widespread credit crunch and a recession. Is something about to break now? Not according to the VIX and high-

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 3-7

Oct 2, 2022 1 min read

Good news in the labor market is now bad news for the bond and stock markets because it gives the Fed more leeway to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. This week's labor market indicators include August's JOLTS (Tue.) and both September's ADP Private Payrolls (Wed.) and the BLS Employment Situation (Fri.). Last weeks low jobless claims number suggests that labor demand continues to

Ed Yardeni

Opera & The Fed

Sep 30, 2022 1 min read paid

They say that "the opera ain't over 'til the fat lady sings." Similarly, the current bear market ain't over until Fed Chair Jerome Powell pivots yet again. Since the late summer, Powell & Co. have been squawking like hawks about their commitment to bring inflation down no matter how high interest rates must go. They should all be wearing Volcker 2.0 T-

Ed Yardeni

Apple & FedEx Spook the Market

Sep 29, 2022 1 min read

Halloween is a month away. The Q3 earnings season starts early next month. But analysts and investors are already getting spooked by a rotten Apple forecast and frightening guidance from FedEx: (1) Apple shares declined nearly 5% today as Bank of America cut its rating to neutral from buy (chart). It fell yesterday on a report that the company has told suppliers to scrap plans to increase iPhone 14 production.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Back Above 3666, BBR Under 1.00

Sep 28, 2022 1 min read paid

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell below the June 16 low of 3666 to 3647. Today, it bounced back above that devilish number to 3719. The good news was that a major central bank was forced to pivot by the Bond Vigilantes. On Monday and Tuesday, the foreign exchange value of the British pound and bond prices crashed, sending US bond yields soaring and stocks falling. Today, the

Ed Yardeni

Oh No: The Fed Is Making Another Big Mistake!

Sep 27, 2022 2 min read

Are Fed officials making another big mistake? They were behind the inflation curve during 2020 and the first half of 2021 because they prioritized lowering the unemployment rate relative to keeping inflation down. Now they are scrambling to get ahead of the inflation curve, or at least catch up with it. So they raised the federal funds by 75bps at each of the last three FOMC meetings to a range

Ed Yardeni

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