Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 137)

Reversal Days Signal Sideways Stock Market

Sep 8, 2022 1 min read paid

Stock investors don't know whether they are coming or going. They don't have much conviction. Yesterday, we observed that there are more market letters calling for a correction than either a big move up or down in the stock market. Reversal days seem to be occurring more frequently recently. Some days the market starts by moving down only to finish up. The next day, it goes

Ed Yardeni

BBR Drops Back to 1.0

Sep 7, 2022 1 min read

Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Ratio (BBR) slipped this week for the third week, to 1.00 (chart below). It had advanced the previous six weeks from 0.76 to 1.64, which was the highest reading since early January. (It was at 0.60 during mid-June, which was the lowest since the week of March 10, 2009’s 0.56.) BBR readings of 1.00 or less tend to

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/6/22

Sep 6, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Powell has put the kibosh on financial markets’ wishful thinking that the Fed will start easing monetary policy next year. How will the Fed—and investors—know when it has achieved optimal tightening, with monetary policy restrictive enough to tame inflation but not enough to touch off a recession? Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will

Ed Yardeni

Divine Disinflation In NM-PMI Survey

Sep 6, 2022 1 min read

Investors are rooting for "divine disinflation." We all want inflation to come down without a painful recession. We want the Fed to tighten one more time by 75bps and then to pause for a while. This morning's release of August's survey of non-manufacturing purchasing managers was consistent with this wishful thinking. That might explain why the S&P 500 rallied after the

Ed Yardeni

Peak Freight Rates As US Keeps On Trucking?

Sep 5, 2022 1 min read paid

US freight rates increased 28% y/y during July, but declined almost 2% m/m. That's according to the July Cass Freight report We expect that August's report, out in mid-September, will confirm that freight rates have peaked just as peak shipping season encompassing both back-to-school and the holidays begins.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Less Risky

Sep 3, 2022 2 min read

The bears say that the 17.4% rally in the S&P 500 between June 16 and August 16 was a short-covering rally. Now that the index is down 8.8% from its recent high, they say the bear market isn't over and will soon take out its recent low. The bulls (including us) believe that the latest bear market's bottom will hold, and

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Anatomy Of A Rolling Recession

Sep 2, 2022 5 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Aug 30 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. Is the only path forward a painful one, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently suggested? Is a recession inevitable now that Powell may be channeling his inner Volcker? Debbie and I still don’t expect that

Ed Yardeni

Lots Of Jobs, But...

Sep 2, 2022 1 min read

This morning's jobs report for August was a good one even though the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. It did so because 786,000 workers entered the labor force, while the household measure of employment rose 442,000. The new entrants shouldn't have any problem finding jobs, while an increase in job seekers may take the pressure off employers to raise wages

Ed Yardeni

August's M-PMI: More Stag & Less Flation

Sep 1, 2022 1 min read paid

August's M-PMI provides confirmation of our economic outlook including a growth recession and moderating inflationary pressures. On balance, it should have been bullish for both bonds and stocks this morning, but the prices of both are down. That's because, today is the first day that the Fed is ramping up QT2, i.e., letting its balance sheet shrink by $95 billion per month. The composite

Ed Yardeni

Europeans Are In A Foul Mood

Aug 31, 2022 1 min read

The Eurozone's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) slipped further below 100.0 to 97.6 during August (chart below). This indicates that the growth rate of the region's real GDP could turn negative during the second half of this year, or early next year. European are scrambling to store natural gas for the winter because they fear that Putin will cut off Russian exports of the fuel

Ed Yardeni

Fed Wants To See Fewer Help Wanted Signs

Aug 30, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell just below its 50-day moving average today partly because the labor market remains hot. July's JOLTS report showed that there were 11.2 million job openings for 5.7 million of the unemployed (chart below). In addition, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rebounded slightly from July's low as only 11.4% of CCI survey respondents said jobs are hard

Ed Yardeni

August's CPI Likely to Confirm Inflation Peaking

Aug 30, 2022 1 min read

August's CPI report will be released on September 13. It is likely to show that inflation is continuing to moderate. We know that the pump price of gasoline fell sharply this month (chart below). We also know that the wholesale price of used cars fell during August, suggesting that the CPI for used cars fell this month (chart below). These two components of the CPI were among the

Ed Yardeni

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