Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 85)

Market Call: Spotting Reindeers

Nov 5, 2023 2 min read paid

Last week was a wild one for sure in the bond and stock markets. The bond yield plunged and stock prices soared led by SMidCaps and interest-rate sensitive sectors and industries. Fears that the bond yield might continue to surge above 5.00% evaporated in response to weaker-than-expected employment indicators and a broadening consensus that the Fed is done raising the federal funds rate. The bond yield plunged 41bps from

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 6 - 10

Nov 4, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a light week for US economic indicators. However, the FOMC's blackout period is over, so there should be lots of erudite remarks coming from the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. They are likely to be less hawkish following last week's batch of somewhat weak economic indicators--though the batch wasn't weak enough to cause more than a tiny decline in

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation - Beware of the Devil in the Details

Nov 3, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors have been spooked by inflation since Halloween 2021 as the CPI soared to peak at 9.1% during June 2022. It was down to 3.7% during September of this year. Yet investors are still spooked, fearing that inflation will remain stuck above the Fed’s 2.0% target or will rebound as it did during the 1970s. Consider the following: (1/4) We’ve recently observed that the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/1/23

Nov 2, 2023 1 min read paid

We recently raised our subjective odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 from 25% to 35% mostly because the geopolitical risks continue to escalate. We see two potential scenarios that could result in a recession, but they don’t warrant raising our recession odds at this time. The US economy remains resilient; we review recent areas of strength. Also: Further escalation of war in the Middle East could bring

Ed Yardeni

Productivity Is Making A Comeback!

Nov 2, 2023 2 min read

Today's bond and stock rallies was boosted by Q3's Productivity and Costs report released at 8:30 am. It confirms our view that strong economic growth isn't inflationary if it is driven by productivity growth. Fed officials have been trying to slow the economy down to subdue inflation. Our analysis suggests that they should allow productivity-led growth to flourish because it is the main

Ed Yardeni

Halloween Is Over. Is Santa Here Already?

Nov 1, 2023 2 min read paid

It's possible that the S&P 500 bottomed today. Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach appeared on CNBC following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser and opined that the entire yield curve looked attractive, at least for a trade. We agree. He also observed that the S&P 500 might have found support at its uptrend line connecting the lows of March 23, 2020 and October 12,

Ed Yardeni

Will Powell Sound More Dovish On Wednesday?

Oct 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The short answer is: We doubt it. It's unlikely that his views on the economy and monetary policy have changed much since his hawkish interview on October 19 at the Economic Club of New York. So he is likely to maintain the same tone at his presser on Wednesday following the latest FOMC meeting. The message should remain the same. Monetary policy will have to remain restrictive until

Ed Yardeni

Flood of US Treasury Securities

Oct 30, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Investors Are Spooked

Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid

Halloween is on Tuesday. Investors have been spooked since early August. They are still spooked by the widening federal deficit, partisan gridlock in Washington, sticky inflation, Fed hawkishness, and a world of trouble. They've been reacting to good economic news as though it is bad news since inflation is less likely to moderate if the economy is strong. We don't agree because we think that productivity

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: October 29 - November 3

Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors would clearly like to see peace on earth and goodwill towards all people. But that ain't happening anytime soon. They would also like to see the US economy slow so that inflation will fall faster and the Fed will turn less hawkish. That ain't likely to happen this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will probably be as hawkish at his presser on Wednesday, following the

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: What's Driving Bonds?

Oct 27, 2023 5 min read paid

In his interview Thursday with Bloomberg’s David Westin at the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked about the bearish impact of the increasing supply of government debt on the bond market given that the Fed is no longer buying Treasury securities and that foreigners reportedly are reducing their purchases as well. Powell responded that buying by foreigners has “actually been pretty robust” this year.

Ed Yardeni

Are Stock Valuations Rerating?

Oct 26, 2023 2 min read

The economic news today was very good. But the stock market sold off sharply for the second day in a row led by a 1.90% drop in the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 fell 1.19% today (chart). That's even though the bond market behaved with the 10-year Treasury yield falling from 4.985% at 8:25 am to 4.851% by the close. But

Ed Yardeni

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