Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 90)

DEEP DIVE: Another Year Of Living Dangerously

Jan 3, 2024 6 min read paid

The Roaring 2020s has been a wild decade so far. During 2020, we all had to deal with the first wave of Covid. During 2021, we had to deal with another wave or two of Covid. During 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation soared, and the most widely anticipated recession of all times remained widely anticipated. During 2023, that same story played out for most of the year but with a

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/3/24

Jan 3, 2024 1 min read paid

How likely is the stock market to have a down year in 2024? Since down years tend to be associated with recessions, and since a recession is unlikely now that inflation has been approaching the Fed’s target, and since the Fed looks more likely to ease than not, it’s hard to see the stock market ending 2024 lower than it began. Our last Morning Briefing of 2023 provided

Ed Yardeni

Fairy Godmother Of The Bond Market

Jan 2, 2024 2 min read paid

When Janet Yellen was Fed chair from 2014 to 2018, we often referred to her as the “Fairy Godmother of the Stock Market.” We noticed that stock prices tended to rally following her speeches and testimonies on monetary policy and the economy. She has been Treasury secretary since 2021. We may start calling her the “Fairy Godmother of the Bond Market.” That’s because the rally in the bond market

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 2–5

Jan 1, 2024 2 min read paid

We made it through another year of living dangerously: 2024 is here! The first week of the new year is unlikely to bring any surprises on the economic front. Most of the indicators will provide insights into the labor market and consumer spending on autos and houses: (1) November's JOLTS report (Tue) should confirm that there are still more job openings than unemployed workers. We know that from

Ed Yardeni

Happy Old & New Years!

Dec 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose 24.2% last year after falling 19.4% during 2022 (chart). Since the start of the data in 1928, years with gains of over 20% were followed by years of 5.9% gains on average. Excluding recession years, the second-year gains averaged 9.7%. Losses during recession years averaged 10.1%. Down years for the market are more likely than not to be

Ed Yardeni

What Does Dr Copper Say About The Global Economy?

Dec 29, 2023 2 min read

Copper is often described as the shiny metal with a PhD in economics because it provides useful insights into global economic activity. The price of the red metal has rallied in recent days, and could be on the verge of breaking out of its downtrend during 2022 and 2023 that resulted from the bursting of China's property bubble and the decline in US housing starts (chart). A similar

Ed Yardeni

Valuation-Led Meltup

Dec 28, 2023 2 min read paid

Meltups and meltdowns in the stock market are mostly attributable to rapid increases or decreases in earnings valuation multiples. The current meltup is no different. The S&P 500 is up 16.2% with its forward P/E up 14.5% since the October 27 correction low. That's mostly because investors have become more confident that inflation will continue to slow while the economy continues to grow.

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Yields Down On Weak Goods Economy

Dec 27, 2023 1 min read paid

Bond yields continued to fall today on December's weak manufacturing regional surveys conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve district banks. Furthermore, on Tuesday, Mastercard SpendingPulse reported that retail sales during the holiday shopping season (from November 1 through December 24) were up just over 3% y/y. The increase was weaker excluding the 7.8% increase in restaurant sales. We conclude that the rolling recession for

Ed Yardeni

Prepare For A Recession & Debt Crisis In 2024

Dec 26, 2023 2 min read paid

While almost everyone (except us) has been waiting for a recession and debt crisis in the United States, we've observed that this calamity has been unfolding in China since early 2023 and will probably continue and worsen in 2024. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis, when the US debt crisis went global, China's debt crisis should remain local. However, China's recession is weighing on global

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Charging Into 2024

Dec 25, 2023 2 min read paid

Merry, happy, joyful, and jolly are just some of the adjectives used to describe this time of year. We hope your holiday season has been merry, happy, joyful and jolly so far. It sure has been for stock investors. The fun started more than a year ago on October 12, 2022 when the bear market bottomed. It has been a powerful bull market since then. Consider the following: (1) Here

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: A Dozen Reasons To Remain Bullish In 2024

Dec 22, 2023 8 min read paid

The current issue of Barron’s includes the 2024 S&P 500 targets for six investment strategists including yours truly. Our target is the highest at 5400, based on projected S&P 500 earnings per share of $250 next year. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson has the lowest numbers at 4500 for the index’s price target and $229 for earnings per share. In last year’s survey

Ed Yardeni

Roaring Stock Market

Dec 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market came roaring back today led by the stock prices of companies that are benefitting from the Roaring 2020s. Strong results and guidance from Micron Technology boosted shares 9% today, while lifting other chip and semiconductor equipment stocks (chart). Micron is the largest US memory chip maker. Its chips go into a wide range of products. The rally since the correction low on October 27 has been breathtaking

Ed Yardeni

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