Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 99)

Bears Are Having A Field Day, Again

Dec 18, 2022 2 min read

Increasing market concern about a recession next year and triple-witching on Friday caused the S&P 500 to close out the week at 3852.36, its lowest level since November 9. It’s down 5.6% so far in December from its recent high of 4080.11 on November 30, but is still up 7.7% from its October 12 low of 3577.03. The index has made three

Ed Yardeni

Looking Forward to 2024!

Dec 18, 2022 1 min read paid

There's certainly lots of pessimism about 2023. That's the bad news. We certainly aren't as pessimistic as the consensus seems to be currently. The good news is that the stock market looks ahead by about 12 months. So the outlook for 2024 will matter more and more, while 2023's outcome will matter less and less as next year progresses. We are optimistic

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Dec. 19 - Dec. 24

Dec 17, 2022 2 min read

Last Tuesday's good CPI news wasn't good enough according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In his Wednesday presser, he remained hawkish suggesting that the federal funds rate would be raised early next year to 5.00%-5.25% (bracketing the latest median forecast of the FOMC) and maintained at that restrictive level until inflation moderated significantly. Friday morning, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John

Ed Yardeni

Retail Sales Clobber Stock Prices

Dec 15, 2022 2 min read paid

Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was more hawkish than expected. He reiterated that the Fed needs to be more restrictive to moderate inflation, and to remain restrictive until the job has been done. The FOMC Summary of Economic Projections now sees the federal funds rate rising from 4.25%-4.50% currently to 5.00%-5.25% next year and staying there. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury note fell to 4.

Ed Yardeni

The Fed: Higher For Longer

Dec 14, 2022 1 min read paid

The FOMC provided its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) today after the committee announced a 50bps rate hike to a range of 4.25%-4.50% (table). At his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that that the rate is now restrictive, but not restrictive enough.

Ed Yardeni

CPI Inflation Peaked During June & Continues to Moderate

Dec 13, 2022 2 min read

Stock prices soared this morning on November's better-than-expected inflation news, but gave back much of the gain as investors realized that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might remain hawkish at his press conferencce tomorrow becuase inflation remains too high. The S&P 500 closed up 0.72% at 4019, just below its 200-day moving average of 4025. The CPI rose 7.1% y/y in November, a slowdown

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/12/22

Dec 12, 2022 1 min read paid

A few choice negative words about consumer spending prospects from a few high-profile bank CEOs tripped up the S&P 500 last week. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Dec. 12-16

Dec 11, 2022 1 min read paid

All we want for Christmas is a lower-than-expected November CPI (Tue.) and a less hawkish press conference (Wed.) by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Santa Claus rally depends on this seasonally happy scenario. The week ahead starts with the NY Fed's November survey of consumer expectations (Mon.). The recent drop in gasoline prices should moderate inflationary expectations. November's NFIB small business survey (Tue.) should provide additional

Ed Yardeni

PPI Inflation Is Moderating

Dec 10, 2022 1 min read paid

On Friday, we learned that November’s headline PPI inflation rate rose 0.3% m/m, higher than the 0.2% expected, and October’s increase was revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%. The good news is that the y/y comparisons showed that the PPI final demand inflation rate peaked at 11.7% during March and fell to 7.4% during November, the lowest since May 2021.

Ed Yardeni

Technicals Remain Bullish

Dec 8, 2022 1 min read

Jitters about a consumer-led recession over the past few days pushed the CBOE equities Put/Call Ratio up to 1.46 yesterday (chart). That's a very elevated reading and suggests that there is too much pessimism. It favors a yearend rally rather than a yearend crash. There is also still lots of bearishness in Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio. It rose to 1.34 this past week (chart)

Ed Yardeni

Fork In The Road

Dec 7, 2022 1 min read paid

It was another day of recession jitters in the stock market as the CEOs of Bank of America and Wells Fargo reported that they are seeing slowing consumer spending and borrowing. That may be so, but there wasn't any evidence of a slowdown in October's consumer credit data released by the Fed today. Total consumer credit rose $27.1 billion in October, up from a revised

Ed Yardeni

Yearend Jitters

Dec 6, 2022 2 min read

The stock market has the jitters as investors worry that the economy may be too strong and too weak at the same time. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell because November's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was stronger than expected (chart). Investors concluded that the economy may be too strong requiring the Fed to raise interest rates still higher, increasing the risk of a recession. Today, stock prices

Ed Yardeni

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