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Uncertainty & Breadth

Jul 9, 2025 3 min read paid

At the end of last year, the words "uncertain" and "uncertainty" appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year's meetings. The June 17-18 meeting minutes released today included those words 28 times. During his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the two words 19 times. Most of

Ed Yardeni

Will SMidCaps Continue To Underperform?

Jan 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Today was another good day for technology stocks, semiconductor stocks, and the Magnificent-7. In the S&P 500, they were up 1.44%, 3.28%, and 2.01%. We continue to recommend overweighting the LargeCap S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. We aren't as keen on the MidCap S&P 400 or the SmallCap S&P 600 (collectively the “SMidCaps”), or

Ed Yardeni

Some Air Coming Out Of Post-Election Balloon

Dec 30, 2024 3 min read paid

The post-election rally has been losing steam since early December (chart). The S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6. From a sentiment perspective, there have been too many bulls. From a technical perspective, breadth has been narrowing again as a few LargeCap momentum stocks continue to outperform. From a fundamental perspective, while earnings growth should remain bullish, the Fed may be done easing monetary policy

Ed Yardeni

Contrarian Curses & Tricky Cross Currents Since September 18

Nov 4, 2024 3 min read paid

Investors often rejoice when a stock they own is selected to join a major market index. Index funds collectively have trillions of dollars in AUM and must buy the stock in bulk, giving a boost to its price. But sometimes these bestowed honors can be a curse for the newbie. Super Micro Computer, for instance, joined the S&P 500 on March 18. It had peaked at a record

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Happy Second Birthday To The Young Bull!

Oct 13, 2024 2 min read

The S&P 500's latest bull market turned two-years old on Saturday. It started on October 12, 2022. Sentiment was extremely bearish back then (chart). There were widespread fears of a recession caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Those fears lingered through October 4 of this year, when a stronger-than-expected employment report once again confirmed that the young bull correctly discounted that inflation would fall while

Ed Yardeni

Break Out The Bubbly: Lots Of New Record Highs

Oct 9, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at records today. Leading the charge were technology stocks. Bank stocks also performed well. At the beginning of September, we wrote: "We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher." We wrote the same at the start of October.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Burning Or Churning?

Jul 28, 2024 3 min read

Geopolitical risk increased on Saturday after a rocket strike from Lebanon killed 12 people in Israel's Golan Heights. Israel retaliated with a strike on Hezbollah weapons caches and infrastructure on Sunday. This is all stoking fear of a wider war in the Middle East. So far, the region's turmoil since October 7, 2023 (when Hamas terrorists attacked and massacred Israelis) hasn't weighed on the

Ed Yardeni

Is The Bull Market Broadening Or Rotating?

Jul 17, 2024 2 min read paid

Many investors are wondering if the recent outperformance of the S&P 400 and the S&P 600 (i.e., the "SMidCaps") and the equal-weighted S&P 500 reflect a sustainable broadening of the bull market. Or is it a temporary rotation out of the Magnificent-7 into the S&P 493 and the SMidCaps? For now, we're in the camp that breadth

Ed Yardeni

Fed Pivot, Trump 2.0, SCOTUS Chevron Ruling & Earnings Broaden Stock Market Meltup

Jul 16, 2024 3 min read

We've been predicting a broadening stock market meltup in the event that the Fed starts cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) as inflation moderates while economic growth remains solid. Last week's CPI and today's retail sales report confirm that's what's happening in the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments yesterday sealed the deal: As of this morning,

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Is The Stock Market Hazardous?

Jun 30, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock market rose to another record high last week. It has been doing so in recent weeks led by fewer sectors and fewer stocks. The S&P 500 market-cap-weighted stock price index has significantly outperformed the equal-weighted index in recent weeks (chart). Many technicians warn that this could be a bearish sign in the short-run if the leaders experience a correction. An alternative scenario we favor is that

Ed Yardeni

Broadening Bull

Mar 11, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 market-weighted stock price index is up 43.2% since the current bull market started on October 12, 2022 (chart). The equal-weighted version of the index is up 29.5% since it bottomed on September 30, 2022. This confirms our view that the bull market has been a broad one all along. The equal-weighted index has certainly been in a bull market, it just hasn'

Ed Yardeni

Not-So-Narrow Bull Market

Feb 8, 2024 1 min read

Have the S&P 500’s eight largest-capitalization stocks, the so-called MegaCap-8, been eating all the jellybeans, starving the other 492 in the S&P 500 LargeCap index during the current bull market? No. While the eight heavyweights have been on a sugar high in this bull market, they’ve left plenty of sweets for the rest of the stock market. Since October 12, 2022, when the bull

Ed Yardeni

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