China

Inflationary Expectations Decline In US As China Deflates

Jun 9, 2025 3 min read paid

In the hilarious comedy movie "What About Bob," Bill Murray, who plays Bob, tells his shrink "that there are two types of people in this world. Those who like Neil Diamond and those who don't." There also seem to be two types of respondents to surveys of inflationary expectations: like those included in the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) survey and those included in the

Ed Yardeni

Risk On & Off Here & There

May 20, 2025 4 min read paid

As the world turns, so do risk-on and risk-off trades around the world. Some are for the short term and based on technical factors. Others are for the long term and based on fundamentals. Let's take a quick tour around the world: (1) Japan. While pessimists have been predicting an imminent sovereign debt crisis in the US, it seems to be unfolding in Japan currently. Amid a shrinking

Ed Yardeni

By The Shores Of Lake Geneva

May 12, 2025 3 min read

Here is how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized his negotiations with Chinese trade officials this past weekend: "We had very productive talks and I believe that the venue, here in Lake Geneva, added great equanimity to what was a very positive process." The US and China on Monday agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days. Stock prices soared on this

Ed Yardeni

Stop The World—We Want To Get Off!

May 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Year Of The Snake

May 2, 2025 3 min read

Stock prices soared today on a better-than-expected April US employment report and news that China is evaluating US overtures to start trade negotiations. In the Chinese zodiac, 2025 is the Year of the Snake. It began on January 29, 2025. It is shaping up to be a bad year for China's economy. We've been thinking that the Chinese are less likely to blink than President Donald

Ed Yardeni

Tit-For-Tat: The Opposite Of Panda Diplomacy

Apr 14, 2025 2 min read

The trade war between the US and China is heating up, increasing the risk that China will invade Taiwan. Let us explain. On April 11, Reuters reported the following: "Shipments of seven rare earths placed on an export control list last week by Beijing have ground to halt, three sources said, raising the risk of shortages overseas as Chinese exporters begin the long, uncertain wait for government licenses. Shipments

Ed Yardeni

Buying What Glitters

Feb 18, 2025 2 min read paid

A late-day rally sent the S&P 500 up 0.24% to a new record high of 6,130. But gold had a much better day, jumping 1.8% to a record $2,952 per ounce. This "safe haven" asset is now up 10.6% ytd, better than the S&P 500's 4.5% and bitcoin's 1.8% gains so far this

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Great (Yield) Fall Of China

Jan 2, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's Wall Street Journal reports: "Now, as Trump prepares for his second administration, American companies have largely gone silent about the importance of the U.S.-China relationship. That is because American businesses no longer see China as the land of opportunity. The promise of China’s market has faded as its once-booming economy hits trouble." We've been saying for a while that China

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Whatever It Takes? China Is Stimulating, Again.

Dec 26, 2024 3 min read paid

There may soon be fewer jobs for economists in both the US and China. On Monday, December 23, Elon Musk (one of the DOGE Boys) tweeted that the "Fed is absurdly overstaffed." On its website, the Fed in Washington brags: "The Federal Reserve Board employs more than 500 researchers, including more than 400 Ph.D. economists, who represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Is the Fed Inflating? Is China Deflating?

Dec 16, 2024 3 min read paid

Last Thursday, we wrote, "After today's PPI, we won't be surprised if Fed officials plant a story in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend titled something like "Fed Officials Might Vote To Pause Rate Cutting Following Hot Inflation Data." We were close. Nick Timiraos, the WSJ's ace Fed watcher, posted after midnight today an article titled "The Fed’s

Ed Yardeni

Manufacturing Indicators May Be Rebounding in US and China

Dec 2, 2024 2 min read paid

After languishing for the past couple years, manufacturing gauges in both the US and China improved in November. Could this be the start of a rolling recovery for both countries' goods producers? We think so, though a tariff war would spoil the party quickly. A revival in US goods production would likely boost bond yields as growth expectations increase. The 10-year Treasury yield could breach 4.5% by year-end

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

China: A Deflating Dragon

Nov 11, 2024 3 min read paid

Over the past three years, most American economists believed that a recession would be necessary to bring inflation down to 2.0% in the US. While the US economy managed to avoid a downturn, those predictions may have been right. The recession, however, was in China as the huge negative wealth effect of falling property and stock prices caused Chinese consumers to retrench. China's government encouraged manufacturers to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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