Consumer Spending

Optimistic Spin: Bond Market Pricing Better-Than-Expected Economic Growth

Sep 30, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields rose yet again today even though September's PCED inflation report showed some improvement, which was due mostly to new measurement procedures. Inflation remains about a percentage point above the Fed's 2.0% target. Other economic indicators today confirmed that the economy and the labor market are doing very well and strengthened the case for more Fed rate hikes. Yesterday's dovish suggestion by

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Prospect of Accelerating Wage Growth In A Strong Economy

Sep 29, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Is Wage Growth Accelerating? Wage growth signals labor market conditions. Just as shortages of goods tend to push prices higher, worker shortages tend to push wages higher. When labor demand outstrips labor supply, employers must compete more aggressively for workers, resulting in faster wage growth. Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell's framework for assessing labor-market tightness compares labor demand, using the sum of household employment plus job

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Baby Boom Briefing

Sep 24, 2026 5 min read paid

Consumer spending resilience increasingly has become a balance-sheet story rather than an income-statement story. The personal saving rate has been falling since January 2024 as consumer outlays have outpaced disposable personal income (chart). Many economists believe that this is unsustainable. Not us. We think that the saving rate will turn negative by the end of the decade as retiring Baby Boomers finance their spending with their sizeable net

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Silver Tsunami In A Booming Economy

Sep 22, 2026 5 min read paid

I. The Silver Tsunami The “silver tsunami” refers to the large wave of Baby Boomers moving into retirement and the rise in the number of older households. That demographic shift is increasingly reshaping America’s consumer economy, as older households account for a growing share of income and spending power. The scale of that shift becomes clearer when viewed against the broader expansion of the household sector. The US had

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Is Fine & The Fed Should Be Turning More Hawkish

Aug 5, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Macro The economy's two most important engines of economic growth, consumer spending and business investment, are booming. In Q2-2026 real GDP, consumption expenditures increased 3.3% (saar) and nonresidential fixed investments jumped 8.4%. The headline and core GDP deflators, the most comprehensive measures of economy-wide inflation, rose 4.3% y/y and 3.8% (chart). Fed officials should be turning hawkish. Recent Q2 earnings

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Is Still Flying

Jul 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of economic data suggests that the US economy remains in remarkably good shape. Domestic demand is strong, and the labor market continues to show resilience. Inflation isn't as picture-perfect. While June's PCED report provided some welcome relief, recent inflation shocks may spread in coming months. They include another round of tariffs, the AI building boom, high energy prices, and supply-chain disruptions.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation Risks Still Outweigh Labor Market Risks

Jul 28, 2026 4 min read paid

All eyes are on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Markets expect the Fed's monetary policy committee to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with the CME FedWatch assigning roughly a 70% probability to no change and a 30% probability to a 25bps rate hike. Investors will be closely watching the FOMC statement, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, and the degree

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Powers On As FIFA Spending & IRS Tax Rebates Fade

Jul 21, 2026 4 min read paid

As confetti and red-and-yellow streamers rained down on the roaring crowd, the final whistle blew, and Spain lifted the World Cup trophy after a thrilling 1:0 victory over Argentina. The games are over. The fans are heading home, and an important economic tailwind is beginning to fade. According to Bank of America, the FIFA World Cup generated roughly $20 billion in economic activity across the United States,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Consumers Singing, "Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now!

Jul 16, 2026 4 min read paid

"Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now" is a 1979 disco song performed by R&B duo McFadden & Whitehead. American consumers agree. For a long time now, their doubters warned that a low savings rate, flatlining real disposable income, rising consumer debt, and mounting affordability challenges would force households to retrench. Instead, they continue to do what they do best, namely shop! A well-balanced

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Fed Still Has An Inflation Problem Despite Plunging Oil Prices

Jun 25, 2026 4 min read paid

The FOMC’s policy stance is determined by the balance of risks to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. In the current environment, those risks remain firmly skewed toward inflation, justifying last week's FOMC pivot from an easing bias to a tightening one. Today's plethora of May economic data shows that the economy and the labor market are in great shape, while both

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Challenging The Challenger Report

Nov 6, 2025 3 min read

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell this morning on news that layoffs rose sharply, according to the Challenger Report, which was titled "JOB CUTS SURPASS 1 MILLION; HIGHEST OCTOBER TOTAL SINCE 2003. COMPANIES CITE COST-CUTTING, AI IN OCTOBER." That headline is somewhat sensational. It refers to the past 12 months through October. The actual number of layoffs during the month was 153,074, as the report

Ed Yardeni

US Labor Market Is In Balance

Sep 5, 2025 3 min read

August's employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month's payrolls rose by just 22,000. June's number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July's number was revised up by 6,000 to 79,000. August's big losers were goods producers (-25,000), professional & business services (-17,000,

Ed Yardeni

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