CPI Inflation

CPI Heats Up But, Unlike 2021-22, Wages Remain Cool

May 12, 2026 4 min read paid

During 2021 and 2022, a wage-price spiral was exacerbated by widespread global supply chain disruptions and a spike in oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (charts). This time, the war in the Middle East has caused oil prices to spike. Some supply chains have been disrupted. But a wage-price spiral is less likely. The labor market is in equilibrium this time (chart). In 2021-22, demand for labor

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 4-8

May 3, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is chock-full of labor market indicators. In addition, nine Talking Fed Heads on the Federal Open Mouth Committee are on the speaking circuit, with Williams, Bowman, and Goolsbee coming up twice. Despite the elevated oil prices, the stock market continues to levitate to new highs. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude hit $110.10 intraweek and closed on Friday at $102.48. Brent

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

No More Mr. Nice Guy

Apr 29, 2026 4 min read paid

We will miss Jerome Powell's chairmanship of the Fed. He is a nice guy. He did the best that he could as Fed chair from February 5, 2018, through May 15, 2026, when his term as chair expires. Nevertheless, he said he intends to remain a Fed governor for now. He can do so until his term on the Board of Governors expires on January 31, 2028. President

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh, Rinse, Repeat

Apr 22, 2026 5 min read paid

We are Fed Watchers. In his Senate Banking Committee hearing yesterday, Kevin Warsh suggested that under his leadership, we might have less to watch. He advocated ending current "forward guidance" practices, which means no more quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, including the Dot Plot (chart). He suggested that a press conference after FOMC meetings should only be held when there is "important news" to deliver, rather

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

How Transitory Is The Inflation Problem Ahead?

Apr 9, 2026 4 min read paid

This evening, Reuters reports that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday, despite the US-Iran ceasefire. Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to remain within its territorial waters as they passed through the Strait to avoid mines. As we've noted previously, geopolitical crises tend to provide buying opportunities in the stock market. Sure enough: Following a 9.1%

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'

Apr 8, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war has been replaced by the fog of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Negotiators for the two countries will meet in Islamabad on Friday. They met many times before without averting the war. The pounding of Iran by the US and Israel has failed to topple Iran's regime, which still seems to have firm command and control of the country despite the decapitation

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Apocalypse Now, Not! Lowering Recession Odds.

Apr 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Two hours before his latest deadline, President Donald Trump canceled Obliteration Day. He agreed tonight to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The deal was brokered by Pakistan. Trump confirmed the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran as a basis for negotiating a permanent peace agreement. Israel separately agreed to suspend its bombing during negotiations. The market reaction was swift. Crude oil prices tumbled, while S&P 500

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs

Apr 6, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. is the deadline by which Iran must accept President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a US attack on its power plants and bridges. There is no way to predict the outcome. We can't rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

POTUS Sees An Exit Ramp Up Ahead

Apr 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War and the President's Speech Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500's pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record high. That low could be retested, but we think that yesterday's big rally, combined with the recent drop in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

'Obliteration Day' Was Postponed. Time To Buy Stocks?

Mar 24, 2026 4 min read paid

Stocks rallied on Monday because President Donald Trump postponed his 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if the country doesn't fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, he extended the deadline by five days, until Friday, while talks with Iran continue. Investors and traders recall that stocks soared on April 9, 2025, an hour before the stock market closed after Trump

Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait & The Home Front

Mar 12, 2026 5 min read paid

Stock and bond prices fell today as oil prices rose back to around $100 per barrel. The US and Israel continue to pound Iran from the air, but Iran's regime continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf nations and vessels, and Israel too. The WSJ reported today that "Israeli officials assess Iran's ruling regime is unlikely to fall soon, as its rulers remain in

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 8-12

Mar 8, 2026 3 min read

This promises to be a nerve-racking week of developments in the Middle East. In the nine days since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the conflict has embroiled various neighboring countries. Tehran’s moves to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz are causing sharp spikes in oil and gas prices – and sending economic forecasters back to the drawing board. This evening, Brent crude topped $100 a barrel. As

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

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