Employment

Monetary Policy Is In A 'Good Place'

Apr 18, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Will Depressed Small Business Owners Depress The Economy?

Apr 9, 2024 2 min read paid

Stocks marked time today, while bonds rallied after the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its March survey of small business owners this morning. It was a pessimistic report overall. The small business optimism index fell to the lowest reading since December 2012 (chart). Yet, the solid performance of the economy has been at odds with the mounting pessimism of small business owners since early 2022. The employment-related series

Ed Yardeni

More Bumps Ahead?

Apr 2, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has often said that the road toward lowering inflation down to the Fed's 2.0% target is likely to be bumpy. Nevertheless, there has been no turbulence in the stock market's smooth ascent to new record highs since October 27, 2023, which marked the end of a 10.3% correction in the bull market that started October 12, 2022 (chart). Nevertheless, we

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 1 - 5

Mar 31, 2024 2 min read paid

The first week of the month is always jampacked with economic indicators. In addition, at least one member of the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be speaking every day. The economic indicators should confirm that the economy remains resilient in the face of pockets of weakness (a.k.a., rolling recessions). For starters, we'll see if the ISM's March M-PMI (Mon) confirms the weakness in the

Ed Yardeni

Sweet Economic Indicators

Mar 28, 2024 2 min read

Today's batch of economic indicators was mostly sweet. Q4's real GDP was revised from 3.2% to 3.4% (chart). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is projecting 2.1% for Q1-2024. Consumer spending was revised up from 3.0% to 3.3% despite fears that it would be depressed by the resumption of student loan payments. We disputed that notion by observing that real wages and

Ed Yardeni

The Man With The Midas Touch

Mar 26, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear

Mar 6, 2024 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was very reassuring during his congressional testimony today. He said the economy is fine, inflation is moderating, and interest rates have probably peaked. He also said the Fed is likely to lower interest rates, but won't rush to do so: "We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 4 - 8

Mar 2, 2024 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. We expect that January's JOLTS report (Wed) and February's employment report (Fri) will confirm that the labor market remains strong. That's based on weekly initial unemployment claims remaining just north of 200,000 in recent weeks and February's consumer confidence survey showing that 41.3% of respondents agreed that jobs are plentiful (chart). Bad

Ed Yardeni

50 Shades of Bright Colors

Feb 27, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic picture remains bright. The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow model today. Q1's real GDP is tracking at a 3.2% annual rate, up from 2.9% on February 16. Real GDP was up 4.9% and 3.3% during Q3 and Q4 last year (chart). We also learned today that there are still plenty of jobs available in the labor market. The Consumer Confidence Index survey

Ed Yardeni

Higher For Longer

Feb 22, 2024 2 min read paid

We've been in the higher-for-longer camp regarding the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) since the end of last year. That outlook was confirmed by the release of January's FOMC minutes yesterday and today's speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The Fed wants to see more progress bringing inflation down and is in no rush to ease given the strength of the

Ed Yardeni

It Was Cold In January, But Spring Is Coming!

Feb 15, 2024 2 min read

Retail sales fell 0.8% m/m in January, much weaker than expected (chart). Leading the way down was a 4.1% drop in building materials & garden equipment & supplies. Following the release of January's employment report, we anticipated some weakness in retail sales because the 0.2% increase in payrolls was offset by an odd 0.6% drop in average weekly hours (chart). Also weak during

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Scare

Feb 13, 2024 2 min read paid

Today, January's CPI inflation rate was slightly higher than expected. But the upside surprise was enough to convince investors and traders that the Fed is less likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) soon or by as much as they expected over the next 12 months. The 12-month federal FFR futures rose to 4.44% today, up from 3.74% on January 15 (chart). That amounts to

Ed Yardeni

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