Fed

What Will Powell Say?

Nov 1, 2022 2 min read paid

Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC is widely expected to increase the federal funds rate by 75bps to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. There is much less certainty about what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say at his press conference at 2:30 p.m. after the meeting. The bulls, including yours truly, are hoping to hear that after another rate hike of 75bps next month to 4.50%-4.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 31-November 4

Oct 29, 2022 1 min read Featured

It's yet another Fed week. On Wednesday, the FOMC is expected to announce another 75bps hike to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. That would make the fourth consecutive hike of that magnitude. Fed Chair Powell will have to acknowledge that the federal funds rate is now further into restrictive territory and will be even more so come the FOMC’s December meeting, when the rate is

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Float As 2-Year Yield & Dollar Sink

Oct 26, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 bottomed this morning around 10 a.m. about 1% below yesterday's close on earnings misses by Alphabet and Microsoft. But it quickly popped back up to the surface, so it now is floating slightly above yesterday's close as of 11 a.m. The trading day isn't over, but there is an interesting dynamic playing out in the markets: (1)

Ed Yardeni

MegaCaps, ECB & ECI

Oct 25, 2022 1 min read

History shows that the Santa Claus rally usually starts during October. This year, the S&P 500 had a terrible September, falling 9.3%. Since the end of that month through today's close, the index is up 7.6%. It could be tough sledding for Santa over the rest of this week. After the close, Google missed earnings as YouTube's ad revenue disappointed. In addition,

Ed Yardeni

Fed May Be Dialing Back On Hawkish Squawking

Oct 22, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 rallied 2.37% to 3,752.75 on Friday as the 2-year US Treasury note yield fell to 4.50% from 4.61% on Thursday (chart). The happy day's performance was sparked by Friday's WSJ article titled "Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes." It was written by the Journal'

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500: Why Today's Sizzle?

Oct 17, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 sizzled last week on Thursday. It fizzled on Friday. Why is it sizzling again today? On Friday, Reuters interviewed St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. As we observed in today's Morning Briefing, Bullard said that he favors “frontloading” hikes in the FFR, with a wait-and-see stance on 2023. In other words, he suggested that the Fed should go ahead with the widely expected

Ed Yardeni

Good News Bears

Oct 7, 2022 1 min read paid

The good news is that the S&P 500 rose 1.5% this past week. The bad news is that it gave back almost all of the rally that occurred during the first two days of the week and is only 1.5% above the bear market's low of last Friday. This week showed that bad (good) economic news is good (bad) for the stock market. Monday

Ed Yardeni

The Fed Is Too Hawkish

Oct 6, 2022 2 min read

Stock prices were beat down today by three downbeat and hawkish Fed officials (Fed Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic). They all repeated the Fed's party line: Inflation is too high and the Fed must continue to raise interest rates to bring it down. They reiterated what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his September 21 presser. He mentioned the

Ed Yardeni

Fed Wants To See Fewer Job Openings

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read paid

It's been a great October so far for bond and stock investors. Last week's pivot by the Bank of England seems to have convinced investors that the Fed now must give more weight to financial stability, which means that the current monetary tightening cycle might end sooner rather than later.

Ed Yardeni

The Stock Market's Latest Bungee Jump

Oct 3, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 fell 2.9% last week. Today, it rallied 2.6% to 3678.43, back above the June 16 low of 3666. Why did it do so well today? Because sentiment is so bearish. More fundamentally, bad news about the economy is good news for bonds and stocks. And this morning at 10:00 am the market moved higher on news that September's M-PMI

Ed Yardeni

Is Something About To Break?

Oct 2, 2022 1 min read paid

The 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve has been inverted in recent weeks. The yield curve has a history of inverting during Fed monetary tightening cycles when investors start to believe that the rise in interest rates may be about to cause a financial crisis, which quickly turns into a widespread credit crunch and a recession. Is something about to break now? Not according to the VIX and high-yield corporate bond

Ed Yardeni

Opera & The Fed

Sep 30, 2022 1 min read paid

They say that "the opera ain't over 'til the fat lady sings." Similarly, the current bear market ain't over until Fed Chair Jerome Powell pivots yet again. Since the late summer, Powell & Co. have been squawking like hawks about their commitment to bring inflation down no matter how high interest rates must go. They should all be wearing Volcker 2.0 T-shirts.

Ed Yardeni

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