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The Bond Market's Lines In The Sand
Today, the stock market performed better because the bond market performed better. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield remained below…
GDPNow
12 posts
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S&P 500: Smooth Sailing to Another 2023 High
Hooray! The US government won't default on its debts. There are plenty of jobs. Unit-labor-cost inflation is moderating. The banking…
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Rollercoaster Ride in the Bond Market
At the start of this year, the widespread economic consensus was that a hard landing is coming. The consensus changed…
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A Bowl of Mixed Nuts
Today's batch of economic indicators was mixed, showing that the manufacturing economy remains weak, while the labor market remains strong.…
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Consumers Aren't In the Mood for a Recession
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth during Q4 is 4.4% today, up from 4.0%…
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No Recession In Services
Following today's release of September's nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI), the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised Q3's growth rate…
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Mixed Messages From Manufacturing & Housing
July was a good month for manufacturing and a bad one for the housing industry. Industrial production, which is one…
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Plenty of Sunshine In Q3's GDPNow & July's CPI
There's lots of sunshine in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model. Today's estimate shows that real GDP is rising at…
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Leading Indicators Up, GDP Revision Down
We have a mix of good and bad news this morning for you. We will start with the good news:…
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Mixed Indicators Showing Slowing Economic Growth
We are seeing some very odd divergencies between the averages of the regional business surveys conducted by five Federal Reserve…
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No Recession in GDPNow Tracking Model
There’s no recession apparent in the May 27 update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model for Q2.…
