Go Global

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: The Fog Of War Is Lifting

Jun 21, 2026 3 min read

As we’ve flagged in recent weeks, an end to the conflict in the Middle East should see many foreign stock markets outperform the US. Lower oil prices reduce global inflationary pressures, give central banks room to ease policy, and tend to benefit oil-importing economies, particularly in emerging markets, more than the US, which exports oil. Last week’s tape delivered exactly that, with Asia leading the Go Global

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Peace Dividend Should Revive 'Go Global'

Jun 14, 2026 4 min read

The past week was a win for our "Go Global" pivot at the end of last year, as foreign equity markets mostly outperformed the "Stay Home" alternative, i.e., the US stock market. Most of the move came in anticipation of lower oil prices on a possible deal between the US and Iran to end their war. This evening, both sides confirmed that a memorandum of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: 'Go Global' Getting Fried By Rising Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Hot US data are pulling capital flows back home. The US share of the All Country World (ACW) MSCI is at 63.7%, well off the early-2025 peak of 67.4% but firming again. Europe’s share has slipped to 13.8% and Japan’s to 5.0% (chart). Emerging Markets’ share, at 12.3%, is near its cycle high. The ratio of the US MSCI to the ACW

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: 'Go Global' Should Outperform When Strait Reopens

May 31, 2026 4 min read paid

Our call to Go Global rather than Stay Home has paid off so far this year, despite the latest war in the Middle East, which boosted Stay Home, especially in March. However, Go Global was mostly driven by the AI trade in South Korea and Taiwan. The Emerging Markets MSCI ETF (EEM) is up 25.4% ytd against 10.9% for the S&P 500. Moreover, we recommended staying

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: US-Iran Deal Would Boost Go Global Investment Strategy

May 25, 2026 5 min read paid

On Sunday night, Reuters reported that oil prices slipped to a two-week low as US-Iran talks seemed to be moving closer to a peace deal. Then again, the news service also reported that President Donald Trump is in no rush to make a deal and that the US will continue to blockade Iran. If so, then Iran will continue to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, Japan'

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL CALL: Why Are Stock Prices Rising Around The World?

Apr 27, 2026 3 min read paid

Stock markets around the world sold off sharply after the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, global stock prices have rebounded since the end of March. That is surprising, given that many countries' economies are vulnerable to stagflation and even recessions if oil prices remain elevated and oil shortages occur. Even more surprising is that

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Yogi Was Right: 'The War Ain't Over Till It's Over'

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read paid

In his seminal work, On War (1832), Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote: "War is the continuation of politics by other means." The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their war and to talks seeking a diplomatic solution. However, their talks failed, and now they are both resuming the war. On Sunday, US Central Command said the Navy will blockade all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Straitjacket: Iran's Chaos War Strategy

Mar 5, 2026 4 min read

On Tuesday, we warned: "We've been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It's hard to imagine that the IRGC won't use drones and speed boats to maintain their effective blockade of the Strait. If they are successful in doing so, the correction could be closer to 15%." When the war

Ed Yardeni

On The Fog Of War & Having Second Thoughts

Mar 3, 2026 4 min read

Our initial reaction to the latest war in the Middle East was that it isn't likely to last long. However, wars are hard to predict. The fog of war can be very disorienting. The US and Israel killed the top leaders of Iran's regime during the first day of their attacks on the country. So we thought that might set the stage for a short war.

Ed Yardeni

Update On AI Derangement Syndrome & Its Consequences

Feb 25, 2026 3 min read paid

Last year's impressive stock market rally, which began on April 9 (when POTUS postponed his Liberation Day tariffs), was fueled by AI Optimism. It turned into AI Fatigue late last year and, in recent weeks, into AI Fear. Now it's AI Derangement Syndrome. For a while, AI was widely thought of as a productivity-enhancing tool. Now the worry is that it has turned into a

Ed Yardeni

The Great Valuation Rotation Of The Roaring 2020s

Feb 17, 2026 4 min read paid

For most of the time since the pandemic, large-cap stocks have outperformed their smaller counterparts in the US stock market. That is, the LargeCap S&P 500 index has outperformed the MidCap S&P 400 and SmallCap S&P 600, collectively the “SMidCaps.” That started to change late last year as investors increasingly concluded that the former's earnings outlook had become riskier and its

Ed Yardeni

Time To Sell America?

Jan 26, 2026 4 min read paid

The financial press was flooded with "American Exceptionalism" narratives throughout 2023 and 2024, and into early 2025. The April 15, 2024 cover story of The Economist was titled, "Riding High: The lessons of American exceptionalism." On May 25, 2024, the cover story of The Economist was "The almighty dollar." It focused on the dollar's enduring global dominance. The "Sell America"

Ed Yardeni

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