Inflation

Powell Turns Even More Hawkish

Nov 2, 2022 2 min read Featured

During his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to read from the Volcker 2.0 script. His punchline appeared in his prepared remarks: “[W]e still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” During the Q&A portion of his presser, Powell repeated “some ways to go” several

Ed Yardeni

What Will Powell Say?

Nov 1, 2022 2 min read paid

Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC is widely expected to increase the federal funds rate by 75bps to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. There is much less certainty about what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say at his press conference at 2:30 p.m. after the meeting. The bulls, including yours truly, are hoping to hear that after another rate hike of 75bps next month to 4.50%-4.

Ed Yardeni

Regional Surveys Suggest Weak M-PMI

Oct 31, 2022 1 min read

Bonds and stocks might rally tomorrow if the M-PMI is as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. The average of the five composite indexes dropped deeper into negative territory during October (chart). The average of the new orders indexes remained near recent negative readings, while the average for the employment indexes remained solidly positive. All three are highly

Ed Yardeni

MegaCaps, ECB & ECI

Oct 25, 2022 1 min read

History shows that the Santa Claus rally usually starts during October. This year, the S&P 500 had a terrible September, falling 9.3%. Since the end of that month through today's close, the index is up 7.6%. It could be tough sledding for Santa over the rest of this week. After the close, Google missed earnings as YouTube's ad revenue disappointed. In addition,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 24-28

Oct 22, 2022 1 min read paid

The Q3 earnings reporting season will get most of the attention this week from equity investors. Fortunately, we all get a break from the "Federal Open Mouth Committee" until November 4! But we will all be thinking about how the FOMC might react to this week's stats.

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Inflation & Remarkable Reversal Day

Oct 13, 2022 2 min read

Today's reversal in stock and bond prices from down big to up big, following the release of September's hotter than expected CPI report, has been quite remarkable. It's head spinning action. The day isn't over, but shorting the markets on bad inflation news just turned a bit more risky. We've been making the case that the US economy has been

Ed Yardeni

Labor Shortages Depressing Small Business Owners

Oct 11, 2022 2 min read paid

Today, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its September survey of small business owners. They are about as depressed as they have ever been. That’s not because their sales are terrible. Rather, they can’t find enough workers to expand their businesses. So they’ve had to raise both the wages they pay and the prices they charge. However, September’s survey suggested that inflationary pressures are

Ed Yardeni

Supply Chain Problems Are Abating

Oct 9, 2022 1 min read paid

Supply-chain bottlenecks are easing. The parts you’ve been waiting for should arrive shortly. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York compiles a monthly Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) (chart below).It shows that global supply chain pressures decreased in September, marking a fifth consecutive month of easing. The September decline was quite broad-based. The GSCPI’s ytd movements suggest that global supply chain pressures are beginning to fall

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 10-14

Oct 8, 2022 1 min read

Monday is Columbus Day and the bond market will be closed. But stock investors can start the week worrying about September's PPI (Wed.) and CPI (Thu.). Both should confirm that they peaked earlier this year, but the moderation in inflation in both may not be enough to stop the Fed from concluding that more rate hikes are needed to subdue inflationary pressures. The PPI may show more moderation

Ed Yardeni

Good News Bears

Oct 7, 2022 1 min read paid

The good news is that the S&P 500 rose 1.5% this past week. The bad news is that it gave back almost all of the rally that occurred during the first two days of the week and is only 1.5% above the bear market's low of last Friday. This week showed that bad (good) economic news is good (bad) for the stock market. Monday

Ed Yardeni

The Fed Is Too Hawkish

Oct 6, 2022 2 min read

Stock prices were beat down today by three downbeat and hawkish Fed officials (Fed Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic). They all repeated the Fed's party line: Inflation is too high and the Fed must continue to raise interest rates to bring it down. They reiterated what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his September 21 presser. He mentioned the

Ed Yardeni

Fed Wants To See Fewer Job Openings

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read paid

It's been a great October so far for bond and stock investors. Last week's pivot by the Bank of England seems to have convinced investors that the Fed now must give more weight to financial stability, which means that the current monetary tightening cycle might end sooner rather than later.

Ed Yardeni

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