Paid DEEP DIVE: Where Is the Neutral Interest Rate? Sep 30, 2025 3 min read paid In his post-FOMC press conference on September 17, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that Fed policy remains tight notwithstanding the latest rate cut: “What we can say is this, that over the course of this year we've kept our policy at a restrictive level—and people have different views—but a clearly restrictive level, I would say.” In other words, monetary policy remains tight. How does he know Ed Yardeni
Public Fed Cuts By 25 Basis Points, Ho-Hum Sep 17, 2025 2 min read Why didn't stock prices rise today? Why didn't the 10-year US Treasury bond yield fall below 4.00%? Why did the price of gold slip? The financial markets had clearly already fully discounted today's 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate. In addition, the FOMC's Dot Plot wasn't as dovish as some market participants might have expected. Seven of 19 Ed Yardeni
Paid Bonds Weighing On Stocks May 29, 2024 2 min read paid Yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that he wants to see "many more months of positive inflation data" before he's ready to cut rates. He also didn't rule out a hike. Fixed-income investors are starting to realize that this is the new party line from the Fed. Earlier this year, we argued that there was no reason for the Fed to rush Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Public Powell's Plateau May 3, 2023 2 min read The current consensus in the financial markets seems to be that the FOMC is done hiking the federal funds rate (FFR) after having raised it today by 25bps to 5.00%-5.25%. Furthermore, markets seem to be anticipating that the FFR will be falling soon. That's consistent with the widely held view that a recession is coming soon. It isn't consistent with Fed Chair Jerome Ed Yardeni
Paid Markets' Message to the Fed: Just Say No to More Rate Hikes May 2, 2023 2 min read paid The stock market sent a message to the FOMC today: Cease and desist from any more rate hikes, please. The stock market selloff was led by another rout of the Financials sectors of the S&P 1500. Here is what they did today and since March 8, the day before SVB imploded: S&P 500 LargeCaps (-2.3%, -7.3%), S&P 400 MidCaps (-3.2, -14. Ed Yardeni
Paid The Fed Should Give It A Rest Mar 20, 2023 1 min read paid In his previous press conference on February 1, 2023, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the word “restrictive” 10 times. It was mentioned mostly in the same context as the following: “And we said that we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the [federal funds] target range will be appropriate in order to attain that stance of sufficiently restrictive monetary policy that will bring inflation down to 2%.” Ed Yardeni
Paid The Fed Chair Testifies Before Congress Mar 6, 2023 1 min read paid Tomorrow (Mar. 7) and the day after (Mar. 8), Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify in hearings before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services panel respectively, to discuss the bank’s latest semiannual Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The report was released on Friday. It reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bring inflation back down to 2% by 2025, according to the FOMC's December Summary of Ed Yardeni
Public Inflation Is Falling Jan 18, 2023 1 min read Interest rates fell sharply today on news that December's PPI confirmed that inflation is falling rapidly. The PPI inflation rate plunged from almost 18.0% y/y in mid-2022 to 6.2% by the end of the year (chart). Both the goods and services components of the PPI are disinflating. The PPI includes indexes for personal consumption based on prices received by the providers of the goods and Ed Yardeni