Labor Market

Beryling Toward Rate Cuts

Aug 2, 2024 2 min read

Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including their prized LargeCap tech stocks and recently acquired SMidCaps. Here's the market action as of midday: * The Nasdaq officially entered a correction, down more than 10% from its record high reached roughly a month ago. * The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) popped to 29, which hasn’t been seen since

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Low Inflation Readings Stampede the Bulls

Jun 13, 2024 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) warned markets to expect no more than one interest rate cut over the rest of this year. But the bulls are charging ahead anyway on May's lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation data yesterday and today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 25bps since Monday's high to 4.24% (chart). The Nasdaq hit another record high

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Game Over For Birth/Death Adjustment?

Jun 11, 2024 2 min read paid

Some economists claim that recent nonfarm payroll gains are misleadingly strong and are masking the underlying weakness in the labor market. These die-hard hard-landers point to a wonky calculation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), i.e., the Birth/Death Adjustment (B/D). The B/D Adjustment attempts to account for job gains attributable to new businesses and job losses due to business closures that don't show

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bad News About Goods Is Good News For Bonds & Stocks

May 16, 2024 2 min read paid

The Dow is flirting with 40,000 currently, confirming that good news is good news and bad news is also good news for the stock market these days. That's because the bad news is also good news for the bond market. On balance, the news is that inflation is moderating and the economy is growing. Yesterday's April CPI report confirmed that inflation remains on course to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Good News on Inflation & Jobs Today

May 14, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Pause That Refreshes Spooks Investors

Mar 14, 2024 2 min read paid

The vertical momentum rally that started on October 27, 2023 seems to be losing some of its momentum. Maybe. That's OK with us. We would rather see our 5400 S&P 500 target achieved by yearend, then by mid-year. But as the Rolling Stones observed, "You can't always get what you want." Slowing the pace of the advance this week have been hotter

Ed Yardeni

Goldilocks Without The Bears

Feb 29, 2024 2 min read

Every now and then, the economy is widely described as being a "Goldilocks" economy. Like Goldilocks' preferred porridge, it is not too hot and not too cold, but just right and bullish for stocks. We often agreed with that assessment, but we also noted that three bears did show up at the end of this cautionary tale. Once again, the economy is just right for Professor Goldilocks,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 2–5

Jan 1, 2024 2 min read paid

We made it through another year of living dangerously: 2024 is here! The first week of the new year is unlikely to bring any surprises on the economic front. Most of the indicators will provide insights into the labor market and consumer spending on autos and houses: (1) November's JOLTS report (Tue) should confirm that there are still more job openings than unemployed workers. We know that from

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 20-24

Nov 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Productivity Is Making A Comeback!

Nov 2, 2023 2 min read

Today's bond and stock rallies was boosted by Q3's Productivity and Costs report released at 8:30 am. It confirms our view that strong economic growth isn't inflationary if it is driven by productivity growth. Fed officials have been trying to slow the economy down to subdue inflation. Our analysis suggests that they should allow productivity-led growth to flourish because it is the main

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 23-27

Oct 22, 2023 2 min read

This week should be another disappointing one for the hard-landers. That's been true all year and especially during Q3, when the economic surprises were mostly to the upside as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (chart). Q3's real GDP (Thu) is tracking at 5.4% (saar) for the quarter according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. The labor market indicators are likely to show

Ed Yardeni

Powell Remains Hawkish

Oct 19, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell should be very concerned about the rapid disinversion of the yield curve since early July as the bond yield soared from around 4.00% to nearly 5.00% today. If he is, he didn't show it during his interview today. Instead, he noted that the economy remains strong and monetary policy might have to be tightened some more: "We are attentive to recent

Ed Yardeni

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