Leading Indicators

Fed Day (7/30) To Be Followed By Liberation Day II (8/1)

Jul 21, 2025 2 min read paid

The next couple of weeks will certainly be interesting. The FOMC will decide on whether to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) or not on July 30. On August 1, the US will impose reciprocal tariffs on goods imported from America's trading partners. Furthermore, administration officials will undoubtedly continue to beat up on the Fed, especially if the FOMC decides not to lower the FFR next week. This

Ed Yardeni

Risk On & Off Here & There

May 20, 2025 4 min read paid

As the world turns, so do risk-on and risk-off trades around the world. Some are for the short term and based on technical factors. Others are for the long term and based on fundamentals. Let's take a quick tour around the world: (1) Japan. While pessimists have been predicting an imminent sovereign debt crisis in the US, it seems to be unfolding in Japan currently. Amid a shrinking

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 19–23

May 18, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead is light on economic indicators. Fed officials undoubtedly will make some headlines. They are likely to reiterate Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his May 7 presser: "We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Sentiment Remains Remarkably Bearish, Which Is Bullish

Jan 22, 2025 2 min read

Stock price indexes are back at record highs. Yet the stock market's sentiment indicators have turned stubbornly bearish over the past couple of weeks. We noted this development a week ago and concluded that it might be a bullish signal from a contrarian perspective. We aren't sure why there are more bears and fewer bulls recently. Last week, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell from 4.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: April 15 - 19

Apr 14, 2024 2 min read paid

Following Iran's attack on Israel Saturday, geopolitics should dominate this week's market action. The Q1 earnings reporting season will also merit investors' attention. In addition, Fed officials are likely to chatter about whether any rate cuts are likely this year given last week's hotter-than-expected March CPI. And there are plenty of economic reports coming out this week. They are likely to show that

Ed Yardeni

Leading Indicator Still Misleading

Feb 20, 2024 2 min read

January's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was down again by 0.4% (chart). It has been falling since December 2021. It was the 23rd straight monthly decline, just one month short of the record-long slump that began in April 2007 and ran through March 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis. January's Index of Coincident Economic indicators rose 0.2% to yet another record high, continuing

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Feb 20 - 23

Feb 17, 2024 2 min read paid

It's a slow, holiday-shortened week for economic data up ahead. It will start on Tuesday with January's Index of Leading Economic indicators (LEI) and Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI). Regarding the LEI, we are reminded of Bradley Cooper's song, "Maybe it's time to let the old ways die." The LEI peaked at a record high during December 2021, and

Ed Yardeni

38,000

Jan 22, 2024 2 min read paid

The DJIA rose to a new record high of 38,001.81 today (chart). The DJTA is lagging behind the DJIA and remains below its record high. We are expecting that the DJTA will soon confirm the bullish trend of the stock market by rising to a new record high too. In extended trading, United Airlines rose more than 6% after reporting strong Q4 results. Investors are anticipating that Q4

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Set To Vault To New Bull Market High

Nov 20, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 peaked this year on July 31 at 4588.96 (chart). It closed today at 4547.38, which just happens to be the resistance line connecting the July 31 high with the all-time high of 4796.56 on January 3, 2022. It could easily rise to this year's high, which is just shy of our 4600 year-end target by vaulting over the resistance line.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 20-24

Nov 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Powell Remains Hawkish

Oct 19, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell should be very concerned about the rapid disinversion of the yield curve since early July as the bond yield soared from around 4.00% to nearly 5.00% today. If he is, he didn't show it during his interview today. Instead, he noted that the economy remains strong and monetary policy might have to be tightened some more: "We are attentive to recent

Ed Yardeni

Misleading Economic Indicator?

May 18, 2023 2 min read

Today's Composite Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, are pointing in different directions. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell in April for the 13th straight month, sinking 0.6% m/m and 8.6% over the period to the lowest level since September 2020 (chart). The LEI, which peaked at a record high last February, has led recessions by 12 months on average. While the

Ed Yardeni

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