Recession

No Recession In Banking & Production

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P had another good day today following relatively upbeat reports from the banks about their business. The two largest banks in America say that the economy is still growing. On Monday, BOA CEO Brian Moynihan said, “Consumers are spending, they have money, they are employed and they have good credit.” On Friday, at the end of last week, even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged, "Consumers are

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Oct. 17-21

Oct 15, 2022 1 min read paid

Investors will focus on this week's batch of Q3 earnings reports and forward earnings guidance from Corporate America. They'll also be watching interest rates which might be buffeted by more loose lips on the "Federal Open Mouth Committee." The FOMC's blackout period doesn't start until Friday. The only inflation news this week will be included in October's regional

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 10-14

Oct 8, 2022 1 min read

Monday is Columbus Day and the bond market will be closed. But stock investors can start the week worrying about September's PPI (Wed.) and CPI (Thu.). Both should confirm that they peaked earlier this year, but the moderation in inflation in both may not be enough to stop the Fed from concluding that more rate hikes are needed to subdue inflationary pressures. The PPI may show more moderation

Ed Yardeni

Another Awful Risk-Off Week

Sep 24, 2022 1 min read paid

The bad news for the stock market this past week actually started on September 16 in the morning after FedEx delivered a terrible preannouncement about the current quarter. The package delivery giant said in a statement the night before that it expects Q1 earnings, excluding some items, to be $3.44 per share, or roughly 33% below the average analyst estimate of $5.10. In addition, FedEx withdrew its earnings

Ed Yardeni

TINA-TAR: There Is No Alternative To A Recession?

Sep 23, 2022 2 min read

The financial markets seem to have concluded that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has decided to go Volcker on us. During 1979-1981, then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker let interest rates soar to levels that caused a recession. He did so to bring inflation down (charts below). During his press conference on Wednesday, Powell unambiguously reiterated the hawkish message of his Jackson Hole speech on August 26. In other words, he strongly suggested

Ed Yardeni

Leading To A Recession?

Sep 22, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Housing Already Hard Hit By Fed Tightening

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed officials have been saying that they are aiming to raise the federal funds rate from an accommodative level to a restrictive one to bring inflation down. In their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC on June 15, they indicated that they believe that the neutral federal funds rate is 2.50%, which is the upper end of the current target range. Odds are that it

Ed Yardeni

Major Housing Crash?

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Billionaire real estate investor Barry Sternlicht said he believes the economy is "braking hard" and that the continuation of rate hikes is likely to cause a "major crash" in housing. The chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group said so in a CNBC interview on Thursday. “If the Fed keeps this up they are going to have a serious recession and people will lose their jobs.

Ed Yardeni

Slow Moving Economy

Sep 15, 2022 1 min read

August's industrial production and inflation-adjusted retail sales reports today show that the US economy is growing, but just barely. The former was down a bit, while the latter was up a bit (charts below). Both are included in the Coincident Economic Indicators. Consumers went on a spending spree after the lockdown recession in early 2020. They spent mostly on goods because many services were still not open for

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Fugetaboutit Speech

Aug 27, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did pivot on Friday morning at Jackson Hole in his 8-minute speech on the outlook for monetary policy. He turned much more hawkish than the financial markets expected. In his short talk, he managed to walk back any hint of dovishness he might have conveyed during his previous public appearance in a press conference on July 27. Back then, his often ambiguous off-the-cuff responses to reporters

Ed Yardeni

Flash US Business Indicators Flashing Orange

Aug 23, 2022 1 min read paid

S&P Global released its August flash indexes based on its surveys of US manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers. They are flashing an ongoing slowdown, especially for the NM-PMI. Our quick take is that the data are confirming our "growth recession" assessment of the US economy in 2022.

Ed Yardeni

Bear-Market Rally Or New Bull?

Aug 13, 2022 1 min read paid

We won't keep you in suspense: We think the bear market in the S&P 500 bottomed on June 16. If so, then we're in a new bull market. Consider the following based on our Blue Angels framework (chart below): (1) Corrections occur in bull markets when investors fear a recession that doesn't happen. The forward P/E drops, while forward earnings continues

Ed Yardeni

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