S&P 500

Technicals Confirming Bear Bottomed Oct. 12

Feb 3, 2023 1 min read

The S&P 500 blasted higher through its 200-day moving average over the past few days (chart). The four previous attempts to break out of this average failed. This one should succeed. The S&P 500's 50-day moving average has just risen slightly above its 200-day moving average, which may be bottoming now. Last summer and fall we observed that the Investors Intelligence

Ed Yardeni

Betting On S&P 500 Sectors In 2023

Jan 30, 2023 1 min read paid

While stock picking may be back in style and momentum investing is running out of momentum, we are still keeping track of the relative performance of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to one another and to the overall index (chart). Our four favorite sector picks for this year are Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. These are our overweight recommendations. We would market-weight Information Technology and Health Care.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Jan 28, 2023 1 min read

Here is Joe Feshbach's latest take on the S&P 500: "The index is getting closer to its two previous highs of 4100,and thus a possible break above that level." That's been his target at the beginning of this rally and he sees "no reason to alter it." He adds, "The sentiment numbers just do not support a big

Ed Yardeni

Good Breadth

Jan 23, 2023 2 min read paid

One of the best market timers we know is Joe Feshbach. We were colleagues at Prudential-Bache Securities during the 1980s. I’ve been summarizing his views on a weekly basis since the beginning of last year. Here are his latest thoughts he shared with me, this past weekend: “The good news is the market got bumpy as predicted, and it lasted a whole two days. The chart I’ve

Ed Yardeni

Getting Technical

Jan 17, 2023 1 min read paid

Here is Joe Feshbach's latest trading call: "The market has rallied according to plan accompanied by improving breadth numbers. The put/call ratio has moved back to neutral (chart). I would’ve preferred more skepticism on the rally. So while the market should eventually get to the upper end of its trading range it could get a bit bumpy soon. The chart I alluded to last week

Ed Yardeni

Young Bull Market?

Jan 13, 2023 2 min read

Last year, we thought that the S&P 500's bear market might have bottomed at 3666 on June 16, when sentiment was as bearish as it was when the index bottomed at 666 on an intraday basis on March 6, 2009. We were wrong. It fell to a new low of 3577 on October 14. We viewed that as a successful retest of the June low. So

Ed Yardeni

The Bears' Favorite Chart

Jan 3, 2023 2 min read

One of the bears’ favorite charts shows the relationship between the S&P 500 and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The former rose 609% from March 9, 2009 through January 3, 2022 (chart). Over this same period, the Fed’s assets rose 1,005% from $760 billion in March 2009 to $8.4 trillion in January 2022. That was all wildly bullish for stocks and bonds.

Ed Yardeni

MegaCap-8 Stocks Had a Very Bad 2022

Jan 2, 2023 2 min read

Sometimes it is better to own a small boat than a very large yacht. The former is cheaper to operate and easier to maneuver. The MegaCap-8 stocks won the S&P 500 regatta during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. They badly underperformed during 2022 once the pandemic abated. (The MegaCap-8 stocks are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, NVIDIA, and Tesla.) Consider the following: (1)

Ed Yardeni

2023: Another Year of Living Dangerously?

Dec 26, 2022 2 min read

With the benefit of hindsight, the title of this QT certainly applied to 2022. It was a tough year for investors. The consensus view is that 2023 could be as tough: (1) A December NYT opinion piece by Peter Coy is titled, "A Strong Signal That Recession Is Looming." He focuses on the inverted yield curve, which often in the past accurately predicted a financial crisis that morphed

Ed Yardeni

Fireworks Before Christmas?

Dec 20, 2022 2 min read

Santa is on his back foot. Fed Chair Powell's presser was hawkish last Wednesday. Thursday's batch of economic indicators seemed to support the hard-landing scenario. Could the Santa Claus rally make a comeback before Christmas despite the Grinch at the Fed? It could, depending on November's personal income report to be released on Friday. We think that it will confirm that inflation is

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Consensus Forecasts Relatively Steady Recently

Dec 19, 2022 1 min read paid

We now have analysts' consensus estimates for the operating earnings per share of the S&P 500 through the December 15 week. They lowered their forecast for Q4-2022, now showing a gain of only 0.4% y/y. The actual results will be released by the companies during the upcoming earnings reporting season in January and February. The analysts' estimates for the four quarters of next

Ed Yardeni

Bears Are Having A Field Day, Again

Dec 18, 2022 2 min read

Increasing market concern about a recession next year and triple-witching on Friday caused the S&P 500 to close out the week at 3852.36, its lowest level since November 9. It’s down 5.6% so far in December from its recent high of 4080.11 on November 30, but is still up 7.7% from its October 12 low of 3577.03. The index has made

Ed Yardeni

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