Stock Market

MARKET CALL: New Highs Suggest Stock Market May Be Back In Meltup Mode

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high on Friday, slightly exceeding its previous peak on February 19 by 0.5%. The bull market that started on October 12, 2022 is alive and well following the 18.9% correction from February 19 through April 8. During that period, the stock market sold off on Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) as well as concerns that China'

Ed Yardeni

A New Day In The Middle East?

Jun 24, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a ceasefire in the Middle East is a good day for stocks. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the "12-Day War" between Israel and Iran is over. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% yesterday and today on that news to 6092.18 (chart). That's only 0.9% below the February 19 record high of 6144.15. The market rose even

Ed Yardeni

From Trump's Tariff-Postpone-Repeat to Court's Cease-and-Desist

May 28, 2025 3 min read

In imposing his tariffs in early April, President Donald Trump called the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his doing so. This evening, the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to safeguard the US economy. "The court does not pass upon the wisdom or

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Valuation Mojo Driving Stocks' Big Mo Rally

May 18, 2025 2 min read paid

The meltup scenario is making a dramatic comeback. It was one of our three scenarios until March 24 when we wrote the following in our Morning Briefing: "We've decided to fold our 1990s meltup/meltdown scenario into our Roaring 2020s scenario. The current correction in the stock market suggests that the former has played out already, as the bull market's highflyers have been hit hardest

Ed Yardeni

Recalibrating Our Forecasts As Stock Market Roars

May 12, 2025 4 min read paid

Among our main concerns about Trump's Tariff Turmoil was that the drop in stock prices would have a significant negative wealth effect on consumers, especially retired and soon-to-be retiring Baby Boomers, who collectively own about $25 trillion in corporate equities and mutual funds (chart). We raised our subjective probability of a recession this year from 20% to 35% on March 5, and from 35% to 45% on March

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: ‘Mission Control, We Have Thrust’

May 4, 2025 4 min read paid

Today, we are lowering our subjective odds of a recession from 45% to 35% following last week's news that China and the US might be moving toward starting trade negotiations. We also remain impressed with the resilience of the US economy following Friday's employment report. However, we are not raising our 6000 year-end target for the S&P 500. Our QuickTakes dated April 24 was

Ed Yardeni

Damage Assessment

Apr 21, 2025 4 min read paid

Stock prices fell sharply today in response to President Donald Trump's recent unseemly barrage of hostile tweets directed at Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump seems to be setting Powell up to be the fall guy if Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) causes a recession later this year. Also unnerving stock prices was a warning from Beijing to all its trading partners against succumbing to US pressure to

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Wall Street Is Main Street

Apr 6, 2025 4 min read paid

Conspiracy theories are usually wrong even though they seem to explain a lot. The latest conspiracy theory floating on social media is that President Donald Trump is causing a recession to bring interest rates down to reduce the federal government's net interest outlays and to lower mortgage rates to make homes more affordable. A recession would also weaken the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which would boost

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Annihilation Days

Apr 6, 2025 9 min read paid

💡This is a special advance release of Monday’s Morning Briefing, normally reserved for our institutional clients. Given recent developments, we wanted to share it with our QuickTakes community as well. As always, your comments are welcome. Trump’s Tariffs I: President’s Exit Ramp. So far, congressional Republicans are giving Trump Tariffs 2.0 the benefit of the doubt. Some are voicing their concerns. A few Senate Republicans are

Ed Yardeni

Stock Vigilantes Declare: 'Mr. President, Tear Down This Tariff Wall!'

Apr 4, 2025 3 min read

China imposed a 34% tariff on imports of US goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump's trade war today. The S&P 500 continues to fall freely and the Nasdaq entered bear market territory this morning. On March 10, when the S&P 500 closed at 5614.56, we wrote in our QuickTakes: "The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don't like tariffs,

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: 'There Will Be Flexibility'

Mar 23, 2025 3 min read paid

When President Donald Trump was asked on Friday about his tariff policies, he said: "I didn’t change my mind. I don’t change. But the word ‘flexibility’ is an important word. Sometimes there's flexibility. So there will be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal." A WSJ article posted at 5:26 pm today is titled "White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs." It

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Scared Cat Bounce?

Mar 14, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rebounded nicely today in the morning after falling into correction territory yesterday (chart). Was yesterday the bottom? It might have been based on sentiment indicators. On a fundamental basis, President Donald Trump (a.k.a., Tariff Man) didn't tweet about tariffs today after doubling down on Thursday. "I'm not going to bend at all," Trump said when asked about

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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