Stock Market

What Is The Stock Market Discounting?

Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market is discounting the ongoing resilience of the economy and corporate earnings. It is discounting that the odds of a recession over the rest of the Roaring 2020s are low. The longer the economy is expected to grow without a recession, the more sustainable high valuation multiples can be, since earnings growth can be expected to justify those valuations (chart). High valuations don't cause bear markets.

Ed Yardeni

Russell 2000 Is For Losers, But Is Currently Winning

Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The Russell 2000 small-cap stock price index is outperforming the S&P 600, another small-cap index (chart). The former includes many more companies that are losing money than the latter. This is yet another sign of mounting speculative froth in financial markets in response to the Fed's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate on September 17. The S&P 600's requirement that companies

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: What Could Possibly Go Wrong In September?

Aug 30, 2025 4 min read

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when September was weak in the past, it often provided buying opportunities for year-end rallies. So, might the latest top in the S&P 500 have been hit on

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Stocks Discounting Fed Put

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Ever since the release of the weaker-than-expected July employment report at the start of this month, stock investors have been betting that the Fed Put is back in play and that it will probably be implemented at the FOMC's meeting on September 16-17. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had been pushing back against this notion since early this year by saying that the Fed is in no rush to

Ed Yardeni

To 'V' Or Not To 'V'? That Is The Question!

Aug 4, 2025 4 min read paid

In our April 7 Morning Briefing, we anticipated the bottom in this year's S&P 500 correction and a V-shaped rebound. The bottom occurred the very next day. The V-shaped recovery started the following day on April 9, when President Donald Trump postponed his Wednesday, April 2, Liberation Day tariffs. We wrote: "Trump's Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday,

Ed Yardeni

Slow-Motion Meltup Continues

Jul 24, 2025 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged up to record high closes today, lifted by Nvidia and GE Vernova. Trump's Tariff Turmoil appears to be subsiding, just as we expected it would during the summer. Investors are welcoming President Donald Trump's recent tariff deals and expect more before the August 1 deadline set by the President. The European Union and the US appear headed toward

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Slow-Mo Meltup Fueled By Less Uncertainty

Jul 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: New Highs Suggest Stock Market May Be Back In Meltup Mode

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high on Friday, slightly exceeding its previous peak on February 19 by 0.5%. The bull market that started on October 12, 2022 is alive and well following the 18.9% correction from February 19 through April 8. During that period, the stock market sold off on Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) as well as concerns that China'

Ed Yardeni

A New Day In The Middle East?

Jun 24, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a ceasefire in the Middle East is a good day for stocks. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the "12-Day War" between Israel and Iran is over. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% yesterday and today on that news to 6092.18 (chart). That's only 0.9% below the February 19 record high of 6144.15. The market rose even

Ed Yardeni

From Trump's Tariff-Postpone-Repeat to Court's Cease-and-Desist

May 28, 2025 3 min read

In imposing his tariffs in early April, President Donald Trump called the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his doing so. This evening, the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to safeguard the US economy. "The court does not pass upon the wisdom or

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Valuation Mojo Driving Stocks' Big Mo Rally

May 18, 2025 2 min read paid

The meltup scenario is making a dramatic comeback. It was one of our three scenarios until March 24 when we wrote the following in our Morning Briefing: "We've decided to fold our 1990s meltup/meltdown scenario into our Roaring 2020s scenario. The current correction in the stock market suggests that the former has played out already, as the bull market's highflyers have been hit hardest

Ed Yardeni

Recalibrating Our Forecasts As Stock Market Roars

May 12, 2025 4 min read paid

Among our main concerns about Trump's Tariff Turmoil was that the drop in stock prices would have a significant negative wealth effect on consumers, especially retired and soon-to-be retiring Baby Boomers, who collectively own about $25 trillion in corporate equities and mutual funds (chart). We raised our subjective probability of a recession this year from 20% to 35% on March 5, and from 35% to 45% on March

Ed Yardeni

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