Stock Market

MARKET CALL: Stock P/Es Discounting Higher-For-Longer Oil Prices & Interest Rates

Mar 29, 2026 5 min read paid

The fog of war is getting thicker because of the likelihood of US boots on the ground (the "bog of war"). The US Department of War has deployed 15,000 troops to the war zone, raising the risks of a longer war and more American casualties, which will cause an uproar in the US. On Tuesday, March 3, we wrote: "We've been expecting a pullback

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Thanks For The Memory

Mar 23, 2026 4 min read paid

We are taking a break from the war. We may wait until Friday to update our views on its likely impact on the global economy and financial markets. This morning, President Donald Trump triggered a relief rally in the stock market by postponing his threatened attack on Iran's power plants, scheduled for today, until the end of the week. He added that the US is negotiating with Iran.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Odds Of A Longer War Increasing As Trump Set To Declare Victory

Mar 22, 2026 5 min read paid

Is the fog of war thinning or thickening? President Donald Trump has suggested that he is getting ready to declare victory. However, the Iranians have been at war with the US and Israel for 47 years and are showing no signs of ending it. On Friday night, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is "getting very close to meeting our objectives" and is considering "winding

Ed Yardeni

A Break In The Weather

Mar 16, 2026 4 min read paid

Forecasting the weather is easier than forecasting the timeline and outcome of a war. The expression "the fog of war" is a bit confusing because fog often lifts within hours. Wars last much longer. Today, we had "a break in the weather." The war is ongoing, but there were sighs of relief in the energy and financial markets. That's because some tankers are getting

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

DEEP DIVE: The Implications Of The War In The Middle East

Mar 1, 2026 8 min read

This is an excerpt from our latest Morning Briefing, which we are sharing with our QuickTakes community. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on Saturday along with 40 other top Iranian leaders when the US and Israel launched a military campaign against Iran’s Mullah regime. In a February 28 post on The Free Press, historian Niall Ferguson observed that President Donald Trump’s approach to dealing

Ed Yardeni

AI Is Both Blessing & Curse … And: Is Bitcoin Biting The Dust?

Feb 5, 2026 3 min read paid

Our December 11, 2025, QT was titled "AI CALL: The TIME Curse & The Game of Thrones." The TIME Cover Curse hit AI in mid-December when the magazine featured "The Architects of AI" as the 2025 TIME Person of the Year. We wrote: The AI trade is turning into a Game of Thrones. In the past, the Magnificent-7 had their own kingdoms surrounded by big moats.

Ed Yardeni

Too Much Good Economic News?

Jan 22, 2026 4 min read

Investors have decided that the Greenland issue will be resolved now that there is a framework for resolving it. So far this year, they seem to be looking for greener pastures, as evidenced by the broadening of the bull market in stocks. Booming economic activity has provided plenty of greener pastures. There was plenty of good economic news today that should continue to bolster earnings and stock prices. Nevertheless, a

Ed Yardeni

Despite Confusing Stuff, S&P 500 Remains Near Record High

Dec 3, 2025 3 min read

There are lots of confusing recent developments for stock investors to consider. The economic indicators are mixed, with some justifying a December 10 rate cut by the Fed, others not. President Donald Trump said he will announce his pick for the next Fed chair in January. It's not clear whether the Fed will be more or less independent as a result. The Supreme Court is likely to rule

Ed Yardeni

Joy Ride

Nov 24, 2025 3 min read

At the start of November, we expected a pullback in the stock market because the Bull-Bear Ratio we monitor indicated too many bulls. That's bearish from a contrarian perspective. Could the pullback be over already? It might be if the Fed delivers a rate cut on December 10. The stock market took a gut-wrenching dive on Thursday last week. It's still not obvious why the drop

Ed Yardeni

To Bail Or Not To Bail?

Nov 20, 2025 4 min read

Good news bears were on the loose today. It was a risk-off day in financial markets despite strong earnings and economic news. Nvidia reported better-than-expected Q3 results yesterday after the market closed. This morning, we learned that payroll employment rose more than expected in September and that initial unemployment claims remained subdued last week. Nevertheless, it was a bad day for stock investors. The stock market pullback that we expected

Ed Yardeni

The AI-Led Pullback: Recalibrating The Odds Of Three Scenarios

Nov 18, 2025 3 min read

Will today's widely feared AI crisis turn out to be a no-show, too, just like the most widely anticipated recession of all time, anxiously awaited over most of the past four years? We think so. Stock investors are increasingly worrying about an AI-led Tech Wreck, like the one in 2000 after the 1999 Tech Bubble burst. Now, many of them believe the stock market is in an AI-led

Ed Yardeni

Market Musings

Oct 20, 2025 3 min read paid

Apple's stock price hit a new record high today on a report that sales of this year's iPhone models had started strongly. Shares of the tech giant climbed 3.9%, closing at $262.24 and helping the company surpass Microsoft to become the second largest in the US by market capitalization (chart). Only Nvidia is larger. That helped to lift the S&P 500 by

Ed Yardeni

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