Stock Market

Stocks Float As 2-Year Yield & Dollar Sink

Oct 26, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 bottomed this morning around 10 a.m. about 1% below yesterday's close on earnings misses by Alphabet and Microsoft. But it quickly popped back up to the surface, so it now is floating slightly above yesterday's close as of 11 a.m. The trading day isn't over, but there is an interesting dynamic playing out in the markets: (1)

Ed Yardeni

MegaCap-8 and a Trading Call Update

Oct 24, 2022 1 min read Featured

The MegaCap-8 are still the largest yachts in the ocean. These eight stocks currently account for 23% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 index and 46% of the S&P 500 Growth index (chart). This week, five of them--Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon--are set to report their earnings. (The other three are Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla.) Their managements will provide insights into how the

Ed Yardeni

Mid-Term Elections Tend To Be Consistently Bullish

Oct 20, 2022 1 min read

In Tuesday's QuickTakes, we observed that since 1928, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% on average during September, by far the worst performance of any month. October, November, and December were up 0.5%, 0.6%, and 1.4% on average. We concluded: "Yes, Virginia, there really is a Santa Claus rally. Apparently, it tends to be even more likely during mid-term election years."

Ed Yardeni

Bull-Bear Ratio Still Under 1.00

Oct 19, 2022 1 min read paid

The Bull-Bear Ratio was below 1.00 for the fifth successive week this week, edging up to 0.78 after falling steadily from 1.15 in mid-September to 0.57 last week—which was the lowest since March 2009. Bullish sentiment increased for the first time in five weeks, to 31.3%, after falling the prior four weeks from 32.4% to 25.0%—which was the fewest bulls since

Ed Yardeni

Yes, Virginia, There Really Is a Santa Claus Rally

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read

Since 1928, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% on average during September, by far the worst performance of any month. October, November, and December were up 0.5%, 0.6%, and 1.4% on average (chart). Yes, Virginia, there really is a Santa Claus rally. Apparently, it tends to be even more likely during mid-term election years. A September 23 post on TheStreet reported, "According to the

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500: Why Today's Sizzle?

Oct 17, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 sizzled last week on Thursday. It fizzled on Friday. Why is it sizzling again today? On Friday, Reuters interviewed St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. As we observed in today's Morning Briefing, Bullard said that he favors “frontloading” hikes in the FFR, with a wait-and-see stance on 2023. In other words, he suggested that the Fed should go ahead with the widely expected

Ed Yardeni

A Wild & Crazy Day

Oct 13, 2022 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is back above the June 16 low of 3666. It plunged 2.4% today to a low of 3491 following the release of September's hotter than expected CPI report. It then rebounded 5.6% to a high of 3685 just after 3:00 pm before closing up 2.6% for the day. It's possible that prior to the widely-feared CPI report,

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Inflation & Remarkable Reversal Day

Oct 13, 2022 2 min read

Today's reversal in stock and bond prices from down big to up big, following the release of September's hotter than expected CPI report, has been quite remarkable. It's head spinning action. The day isn't over, but shorting the markets on bad inflation news just turned a bit more risky. We've been making the case that the US economy has been

Ed Yardeni

BBR Down to 0.57

Oct 12, 2022 1 min read

So far, widespread bearishness hasn't worked as a contrary bullish signal. Readings below 1.0 in the Bull-Bear Ratio (BBR) have often marked the bottoms of corrections (charts below). But during bear markets, such readings can persist. In the current bear market, contrarians have been up against the old adage: "Don't fight the Fed." The BBR sank further below 1.00 this week, dropping

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Back Down to 0.61

Oct 5, 2022 1 min read paid

(1) The BBR dropped for the third week in a row to 0.61--the lowest since the June 21 week’s 0.60 (chart below). (2) Bullish sentiment held steady at 25.4% this week (the fewest bulls since early 2016) after falling the prior two weeks from 32.4%.

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Performance Derby: Two Good Days

Oct 4, 2022 1 min read

Today and Monday were two good days for the bulls. The question is whether the 5.7% jump in the S&P 500 is just a mini relief rally in a major bear market, or a sign that the worst is over. We are inclined to sit on the fence with our trading-range outlook for the rest of the year. We think that the range is between the August

Ed Yardeni

The Stock Market's Latest Bungee Jump

Oct 3, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 fell 2.9% last week. Today, it rallied 2.6% to 3678.43, back above the June 16 low of 3666. Why did it do so well today? Because sentiment is so bearish. More fundamentally, bad news about the economy is good news for bonds and stocks. And this morning at 10:00 am the market moved higher on news that September's M-PMI

Ed Yardeni

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